KEY POINTS:
Trainer Geoff Small wasn't reaching for the panic button even after Changeover hit a speed bump on the road to the New Zealand Trotting Cup yesterday.
The champion young pacer cost punters a fortune when fading late to fourth in the Flying Stakes at Ashburton, a race won
by outsider Tribute from Waiapwa Lad and Classic Cullen.
Backed into hot favouritism, including one $20,000 fixed odds bet, Changeover took up the pacemaking role with 1600m to go but hit the wall at the 200m, just paddling up the Ashburton straight.
While initially shocked, Small soon discovered the reason for the defeat.
"When I was taking his gear off he was blowing like he had never blown before," said Small.
"I think he needed that run a lot more than I realised and it will either bring him right on fitness-wise or he will be pretty tired."
The defeat saw Changeover drift out to $3 in the New Zealand Cup but his chances haven't diminished much because many of the other big names had even worse results yesterday.
Monkey King galloped away and lost all chance, increasing the already severe doubts over whether he will handle the standing start in the November 13 Cup. He has now drifted to $7.
And Sly Flyin went one of the worst races of his career after trailing Changeover, stopping badly in the last 500m.
He was sent for a veterinary inspection after the race.
While others were losing fans, Tribute did what he did for most of last season - he gutsed it out.
The porky pacer loved the searing 2:55.8 time for the 2400m distance yesterday and outstayed his more illustrious rivals, bringing his New Zealand Cup quote in from $41 to $12.
But even after the shock win trainer Tim Butt wouldn't declare him his best chance in the Cup.
Butt also trains Foreal, who was unlucky after an early gallop yesterday, and Flashing Red, who once again showed he is not as potent as at this stage last season.
"It was a funny race and the pace being on really suited Tribute," said Butt.
"We all know what a great little horse he is because he has raced so well on the Grand Circuit in Australia but he is no good thing in the Cup.
"He can win it but I think we have just as much chance with Foreal. It is very open."
Butt did admit that Flashing Red now faces a huge task from a 15m backmark.
That raises the question: which of the three stable reps will Butt's brother and stable driver, Anthony, partner in the Cup?
While Waipawa Lad and Classic Cullen did their Cup chances no harm with brave performances yesterday, perhaps the biggest winner was Baileys Dream.
He missed yesterday's gutbuster and heads toward the Cup fit and full of confidence.
There weren't many in yesterday's race who could claim that this morning.
* Stig may be the most exciting trotter in Australasia but trainer Paul Nairn says he can only get better.
The five-year-old produced a remarkable performance to sit three wide for the entire Flying Mile at Ashburton yesterday before outstaying Allegro Agitato.
The win continued Stig's remarkable rise up the trotting ranks, from a "mad maiden" eight months ago to the new favourite for the Dominion Handicap next month.
He has done so on pure heart as he still has plenty to learn mentally and has a kink in his gait which gives his army of supporters reason to be nervous.
"He has a long way to go but if I can sort him out he might be too good for all of the them one day," said ultra-conservative Nairn.
"In fact, he might be too good for them anyway."
With a cloud hanging over trotter of the year One Over Kenny and the open class ranks lacking depth, the newcomers like Stig, Mountbatten and the more established northern mare Our Sunny Whiz look set to take over from the older brigade.
Remarkably, Stig is part-owned by top trainer Tim Butt but was sent to Nairn to be ironed out.
"It is a bizarre feeling, we have had a great day training today but my biggest win has been with a horse somebody else trains," joked Butt.
STAKES SHOCK
* Tribute stuns punters by winning the Flying Stakes at 36-1.
* Young gun Changeover finished fourth after leading.
* Monkey King and Sly Flyin were other expensive failures.
* Stig produced an awesome performance to win the Flying Mile.