Racing: C'est La Guerre leads Cup campaign

You need to be thinking ahead to warmer weather.

As mid-winter closes race meetings down, the beige of July racing can be eased by the thought of Melbourne Cups and Cox Plates.

Nominations are about to close and Australian bookmakers couldn't wait this week to frame markets.

There is no surprise that many have former Mercedes Derby winner at Ellerslie, C'est La Guerre as Caulfield and Melbourne Cup favourite.

And none of the Australian bagmen want nothing to do with other than Whobegotyou for the Cox Plate.

Melbourne Cup specialist owner Lloyd Williams has done everything to make Australia's greatest horse race his own.

Remember back two years when he did nothing with Efficient for nearly 12 months then produced the grey son of Zabeel to blitz them in the Melbourne Cup.

His preparation of C'est La Guerre since he bought him from New Zealand smacks of exactly the same thing.

Nothing in the past year has mattered except the 2009 Melbourne Cup.

This almost deserves another Cup victory.

At $18 joint favourite for the Melbourne Cup and clearcut $17 favourite for the Caulfield Cup, C'est La Guerre is almost worth the gamble.

He shares the top line on Doublebet's charts for the Melbourne Cup with Profound Beauty and Rebel Raider and the next best fancied at Caulfield is Rebel Raider at $23.

Bart Cummings and possibly Lee Freedman aside, no one knows more about preparing a Melbourne Cup winner than Irishman Dermot Weld.

He brought Profound Beauty down to Melbourne from his home back last year to finish less than three lengths from the Melbourne Cup winner, Viewed, declaring immediately afterwards it was a year too soon.

But Weld is canny.

It might have been a year too soon for those who backed her last November, but it was almost certainly part of the plan to have her ready for the 2009 version.

"She's a much stronger horse this year," Weld declared after Profound Beauty produced an outstanding recent run in her home country.

All bets placed on these markets are refundable if the horses do not nominate for the races.

Horses can emerge quickly at any time, but there doesn't appear to be enormous potential for that outside the top 10 in the main races in Melbourne this year.

For that reason, C'est La Guerre and Profound Beauty almost look value at $18.

The most fancied New Zealanders in the markets for the Melbourne Cup are Nom du Jeu at $26 and AJC Oaks winner Daffodil at $31.

The pair are at the same odds for the Caulfield Cup.

Bookies give us little hope in the Cox Plate.

Daffodil at $41 and Mufhasa at $51 are the shortest quotes on our horses.

Melbourne Cup: $18 C'est La Guerre, Profound Beauty, Rebel Raider; $21 Efficient; $23 Viewed; $26 Moatize, Nom du Jeu, Speed Gifted; $32 Daffodil.

Caulfield Cup: $17 C'est La Guerre; $23 Rebel Raider, Whobegotyou; $26 Speed Gifted, Viewed; $31 Daffodil, Nom du Jeu.

Cox Plate: $7 Whobegotyou; $13 Jolies's Shinju (Singapore); $15 Maldivian; $17; Pompeii Ruler. Shortest-priced New Zealanders: $41 Daffodil; $51 Mufhasa.