KEY POINTS:
If you are anywhere near the Karaka sales complex today listen very carefully because you could hear something very rare.
It will be standardbred yearling sales buyers rubbing their hands together.
Because after a decade of steadily rising prices, it should be the buyers who are in charge
at the Australasian Classic Yearling Sales today.
The Karaka session of the annual harness racing yearling sales have been one of the great industry success stories of the past 15 years, with the average price rising from around $6000 to almost $35,000 on that time.
Several key factors have inspired the trend - better yearlings from more commercial families, enormous stake increases and, in the past five years, the popularity of the Christian Cullen babies, who are natural sales types.
But harness racing can not dodge the bullet which has so critically wounded the world economy and today's sale will definitely not produce the prices of last year.
The question buyers and vendors may struggle to answer is: by just how much will the average fall?
That could result in a tentative start to today's sale, although there are some good lots early to get things rolling.
A 10 per cent drop in average price would be a seen as a good result, and even 20 per cent wouldn't be a disaster.
The reality is likely to be somewhere in the middle because New Zealand still has a shortage of horses and the average stakes to average yearling price in harness racing is very high compared with the thoroughbred code because we have less off-shore buyers.
But the top end of the market is certain to be affected, with few, if any, lots above $150,000 expected.
Trainers told the Weekend Herald they are interested in $40,000 to $80,000 lots - but many had no firm buyers.
The sale might resemble New Zealand's test cricket batting line-up - weak at the top but solid through the middle.
An interesting aside to the overall figures will be the diversification of stallion popularity.
For the past five years Christian Cullen's stock has dominated the sale to the point few other stallions were worth mentioning. But, even with some small crops this year, expect sires like Bettors Delight, Mach Three and McArdle to have plenty of fans while the six representatives of US-sensation Art Major will attract interest.
