Racing: Bulky Mainland Banner skinny in odds book

Mainland Banner may have only one race before the Cup. Picture / Simon Baker

Mainland Banner is set to open the shortest-priced New Zealand Cup favourite since the inception of fixed odds betting even though her defence of the great race will start later than hoped.

The champion pacer is expected to open at a price of between $2.20 and $2.50 when the first market for the $500,000 cup is released tomorrow.

And while nobody denies Mainland Banner deserves to dominate the market, that sort of price looks anorexic considering she may only race once before the November 14 classic.

Mainland Banner will not be ready for the Hannon Memorial at Oamaru this month, the race which was to have been her comeback, or an Addington race she was scheduled to compete in on October 6.

She will instead head to the trials in around a fortnight and may not even resume racing until the Ashburton Flying Stakes late next month, just three weeks before the New Zealand Cup.

"I saw her last week and she is very fat, a wee bit behind where Robert [Dunn, trainer] wants her to be," said driver Ricky May.

"She is carrying quite a bit of weight and I'd doubt she will race until the Flying Stakes at Ashburton.

"So she may only have that race and then maybe a trial before the Cup."

That could mean Mainland Banner only graces New Zealand tracks two more times in her career, as she is expected to head to Australia straight after the New Zealand Cup for a lengthy campaign.

And this season is shaping as her last in New Zealand, with the Herald understanding an announcement is pending that she will race in North America next season.

While Mainland Banner rarely pays over $2, the expected $2.20-$2.50 quote is impossible to take this far out from a race in which she will have to start from a 10m backmark in a capacity field with just one race under her considerable girth.

Especially considering cup hotshots of the last decade like Iraklis, Christian Cullen and beaten favourites Young Rufus and Elsu were all paying around $2 on the tote on cup day, a state Mainland Banner is still nine weeks away from achieving.

But her short odds should at least boost the prices of other punter favourites like Mi Muchacho, Baileys Dream and Roman Gladiator when the market opens.

Mainland Banner's absence will also give some of her rivals some hope of securing cup places by winning lead-up races while the champ is trimming down.

One of those is northerner Winforu, who has bucked the trend expected this spring by heading to Christchurch to race on Thursday.

Trainer Geoff Small says the absence of Mainland Banner from the early lead-up races, coupled with the strength of the northern open class crop, means Winforu is better placed in the south.

"He can race on Thursday at Addington, then in the Hannon and the open class race at Addington on October 6 all before he has to take on the best horses," said Small.

"Whereas up here he would be up against Mi Muchacho and Alta Serena straight away."

The trainers of most other northern open class pacers have indicated they are all likely to stay closer to home in their New Zealand Cup build-ups before flying south to avoid the dreaded 24-hour road trip.

They have been aided in that by the Auckland Trotting Club's decision to programme more open class races in the next eight weeks, with cup contenders Alta Serena, Myron, Bablands Bute and Molly Darling clashing at Alexandra Park this Friday.

"The trainers have indicated they want to race here before the cup and we are going to give them that opportunity," said the ATC's Rod Croon.