Three years ago Magic Briar made herself a very valuable filly by finishing a close second, but the thrill was brief - she was soon to be relegated to fifth for alleged home straight interference, a decision Ken Kelso believes was wrong and this column agrees with him.
Last year Fix finished third in the group one classic.
No one would disagree that this is the Kelso team's best chance to win the race.
Bounding is unbeaten in three starts this preparation, treating quality opposition with scant regard.
The A$425,000 yearling purchase in Australia is already a cheap horse and if she wins today her value will be more than tripled. "I know it's our turn, but unfortunately racing doesn't work out that way," said Ken Kelso yesterday.
"She's travelled down well and she seems completely relaxed, which is usual for her."
Bounding has ample class, but what makes her very special is her tractability. The Lonhro filly is completely push-button, settling beautifully on any speed and sprinting instantly when asked.
"She's always been the total professional," said Kelso.
At $5, Miss Foxwood is the second favourite. She is a filly on the improve, but she was four lengths away in third place behind Bounding in the Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa last start and it's going to require a massive effort to turn that result around, even from a slightly better barrier draw.
Spellbinder won her debut race by 3.3 lengths and her second - the Soliloquy Stakes - by 6.5 lengths. She suffered her first defeat when three lengths behind Bounding at Te Rapa and, like Miss Foxwood, has to do plenty to switch that around.
Bounding will be worth more than Sonny Bill Williams' contract if she wins this afternoon's 1000 Guineas at Riccarton. They have similar relative ability, except Bounding has the better reliability.
She certainly would never step over the dead ball line before dotting down a certain test try.
It's that gilt-edged dependability that makes her a great bet today, despite the skinny $1.70 quote by the TAB.
You can almost make a case for that being overs, although Riccarton's fearsomely long home straight has a habit of trapping brilliant horses like Bounding.
She's worth the risk on that score, though, because she's made classy fields look a grade below her recently.
Mark Du Plessis knows the Matamata filly well and you can guarantee he won't be pressing buttons before he's confident he has most of the opposition covered.
Her trainers Bev and Ken Kelso have a recent habit of winning multiple races on a programme - they won three on one day over the Hastings spring carnival - and their other runner Traveller, in Race 2, will be a great chance. He was narrowly run down at Te Rapa on Labour Day when he ended up three back on the inside rail instead of trailing the leader. From a good draw again he should get the run of the race.
At Tauranga the $70,000 Stella Artois Tauranga Stakes has thrown together a small, but extremely interesting field. Survived (No2, R7) has been freshened since his luckless third in the Spring Classic at Hastings and that's the way he likes to race. Six weeks between runs looks perfect and although he has yet to win in two attempts at 1600m, that shouldn't be an issue here. Viadana (No5) is back to her extremely talented best and will be greatly suited by the step from 1200m, where she was successful at Rotorua, to today's 1600m. Shuka (No1) was huge last time under 61kg, but this is a different level of opposition.
Lady Cumquat (No14, R1) is an improving mare and a great chance in the opener, provided debut runner Show The World (No17) doesn't do just that in terms of his level of ability. He is beautifully bred (High Chaparral - Bazelle, by Zabeel), the same cross that produced It's A Dundeel from the same stable, Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman. The stable always has them ready to win at first asking. He is definitely the watch horse all day. Watch the tote.
Bellazeel (No5, R5) did okay when third on this track last start and drops a full grade to start here. From a decent barrier and with Opie Bosson in the saddle she makes a lot of appeal. Beauty Perception (No4) is the improver from a nice barrier.
Sakhee's Soldier (No14, R9) showed us what he was all about in winning by six lengths on debut. He went to Trentham for the Guineas, but struggled on the very wet track. Back on a decent surface today he might be a touch too good in the last, which should be another one for Opie Bosson.
