Racing: Baker has recipe for Tulloch Stakes victory

Mongolian Marshal is the $3.20 favourite for the Tulloch Stakes today. Photo / NZ Racing Desk

One of the secrets of Murray Baker's success is to never underestimate the opposition.

Read the same for Hugh Bowman and the late Bart Cummings.

Baker has won Sydney's Tulloch Stakes four times, Our Palliser in 1987, The Bill in 1993, Harris Tweed 10 years ago and with Jon Snow last year.

He and training partner Andrew Forsman have two runners in the A$200,000 Tulloch at Rosehill tomorrow, but Baker is trying not to get confident, even though he will saddle the $3.20 favourite Mongolian Marshal alongside Weather With You at $19.

Mongolian Marshal has won only in maiden class and special conditions maidens and makes a massive step up to Group 2 company today - something unheard of. But Baker has never hidden the high regard he holds the High Chaparral 3-year-old in. The stable was extremely disappointed Mongolian Marshal did not make it off the ballot and into the field for last week's Rosehill Guineas.

"Problem is he hasn't run for a month," Baker told the Herald from Sydney yesterday. "He looks extremely well, we've just got to hope his fitness holds up."

Craig Williams has been engaged and Jason Collett rides Weather With You.

Weather With You has not won or been placed since taking the Geelong Derby Trial in October, although the trainers were pleased with his recent fresh-up fifth at Warwick Farm.

"He has to show something this time to continue (this preparation)," says Baker.

Mark Zahra's ride Levendi and Belfast, prepared by Natalie Young and Trent Busuttin, are strong opponents for Mongolian Marshal.

Meanwhile, an improving track and now a favourable forecast has brought class act Sword Of Osman right back into contention for today's $225,000 Courtesy Ford Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes at Awapuni. The track was yesterday morning rated an official dead 6 with improvement likely.

After raceday rider Opie Bosson rode Sword Of Osman in a gallop at Matamata this week the footing was a dead 6 and Bosson told co-trainer Stephen Autridge the handsome youngster would not want the Awapuni track to be worse than a 6. It appears the stable will get away with it, although check the official rating this morning. Don't be surprised if the stable produces a Sword Of Osman - Avantage quinella.

The Ice Knight (No2, R5) looks a good each-way bet at Awapuni. He's only third favourite and he is basically money back for your bet if he places and it's difficult to see him missing the money. Yes, he has to beat the favourite Gift Of Power, but she's a filly with 58.5kg and has a difficult barrier draw. Boss (No7) is $3.30 second favourite and although he looks extremely talented he comes off only two race starts. The Ice Knight is not foolproof, particularly in the brain department - rider Michael McNab described him as a "pork chop" after winning on him at Avondale last start. But he is classy and on the improve in all departments. Very interesting race. St Emilion (No1, R8) looks the bet of the day. Co-trainer Murray Baker is not a fan of set weights and penalty races because of their ability to turn handicaps on their head, but St Emilion is this time a winner under these conditions. As a Group 1 weight-for-age winner at Ellerslie last start he comes in nicely here on 58kg. He should lead and provided the rail is not the 'no-go' lane late in the day will take some pulling back. He is in career-best form. Koko Belle (No10, R9) looks a good get-out bet. She had no luck at Ellerslie last start, getting well back and was making ground well in the closing stages. Her barrier looks awkward, but away from the rail is probably going to be the right place in this race.