There is a game changing statistic around Sofia Rosa in today's $200,000 Avondale Cup at Ellerslie.
She is better off in the weights today than in any of her New Zealand starts in the last two years. In each of those runs she carried either 57kg in weight-for-age races orset weights in age-group events.
For this big mission she drops to 53.5kg and in the closing stages of a tough 2400m that could make her very difficult to handle for the two at the top of the handicap, Benzini and Five To Midnight.
This is not a knock on Sofia Rosa - you can't bag a million dollar winner - but she is not an everyday racehorse, mainly because of her determination to hang badly in the latter stages of her races. Don't forget that tendency cost her the NZ Oaks in the inquiry room last autumn.
Despite that, this race sets up nicely for her. Her run for third behind Kawi in the 1600m Group 1 Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham two back was excellent. Her final 600m sectional was not too far off that of Kawi and she was the widest horse around the home bend. If you watch that replay you will notice she ran strongly through the line, an important indication for her stepping to 2400m here.
You can completely ignore the Zabeel Classic form. Congratulations to warrior Authentic Paddy, but there was a fierce, rain-induced, on-pace bias on the day.
With Benzini on 59kg topweight and therefore compressing the handicaps, Five To Midnight is not badly off as the Waikato Cup winner on 57kg. He is probably the each-way bet of the day.
Benzini has real ability to go with his toughness. The 59kg is never easy over a rugged 2400m, but he does not give in easily and his Zabeel Classic fifth was one of the better efforts. Leave him out of multiples at your peril.
Promise To Reign is on the verge of winning one of these features. She was just a long neck from Five To Midnight, but she had her chance to beat him in the closing stages and couldn't. She is just half a kilo better off in the weights this time.
• Difficult to make a case against Contessa Vanessa in the $100,000 Stella Artois Royal Stakes. She overcame home-straight difficulties to win the 1600m Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and will be well suited by the jump to 2000m today.
Stable apprentice Ryan Elliot was aboard in the Eight Carat, but he is suspended for today and Chris Johnson takes the mount.
Gris Dame was only a head and a long head behind Contessa Vanessa and rates highly here. Lily The Pink wasn't far away in the same race and is still on an upward form plane.
