Racing: Avantage looks to have the advantage at $100,000 Valachi Downs Foxbridge Plate at Te Rapa

Favourite Avantage has the advantage today. Photo / Race Images

The first great race of the thoroughbred season at Te Rapa today feels like a game of spot the weakness in hot favourite Avantage. But don't spend too much time looking because there may not be one.

The Te Akau mare is the warm $2.10 favourite for the $100,000 Valachi Downs Foxbridge Plate which is awfully short when you consider the class of her opposition and the fact she hasn't raced since March.

When a horse approaches even money in a serious Group 2 race punters divide into two groups: those happy to double their money and those liking the value the favourite has pushed other runners out to.

You can make a plausible case for that second scenario with Railway winner Julius at $5.50 and Travelling Light enormously untapped at $7.50 while there is plenty of class in Princess Kereru, Prise De Fer, Dawn Patrol, Kiwi Ida, Demonetization and the little horse who could, Tavi Mac.

But while value is nice, the bottom line for punters is will any of those above beat Avantage, who ended last season with three Group 1 wins in seven weeks, ranging in distance from 1200m to 2000m?

So let us examine the reasons to doubt the favourite.

Avantage is fresh-up, when almost all horses are vulnerable and she has been beaten fresh-up in her last two campaigns.

But dig a bit deeper and you see she was a victim of circumstances in both races and when you look further back she has won the Gold Trail at Hastings and a Group 3 1200m in Sydney when fresh.

Her latest trial suggested she was more than ready when she conceded 6kg to Supera and beat her under catchweight conditions at Taupo and her work since has been spot on.

"She is ready to win," says trainer Jamie Richards.

"She does carry weight cause she is a big round mare but she has been in work a long time and has had the two trials.

"I actually rate her our best chance of the day."

Doubters could be influenced by the fact Opie Bosson rides Prise De Fer instead of Avantage but that is purely because of their weights, with Bosson like many of our senior riders working his way south from 60kg.

And replacement rider Danielle Johnson has won two Group 1 races and a Group 3 on Avantage so she is the right jockey for the job today.

Then there is the slight doubt that Avantage might not have the early toe to use her inside draw because punters won't be feeling super happy about that $2.10 price if she gets back to midfield and loses that advantage.

"We are very aware of that and she will be getting a dig in the ribs early and she is ready to race handy," says Richards.

Although Avantage will probably be more potent over the 1400m at Hastings in two weeks, so too will most of her rivals so perhaps the last piece of that punting puzzle is whether down on the inside is the place to be by race eight today.

Te Rapa can be hard to read, especially the way the weather has changed this week but Waikato Racing boss Andrew Castles walked the track yesterday and was confident it will get to dead6 or even dead5 today and the inside will hold up and not be a disadvantage.

The good news for punters is there is plenty of time to assess how the track is playing before the Foxbridge and make your decision.

But if you are betting against Avantage, you will want to have found a pretty good reason.

Race of the day

$100,000 Valachi Down Foxbridge Plate at Te Rapa

●Race eight at 3.50pm

●Best bet: Avantage

●Place value: Princess Kereru

●Other Te Rapa highlight: $70,000 WRC Northland Breeders Stakes

●What to watch for: Whether the drying track favours horses drawn to get handy to the rails. The first two or three races should tell the tale.