You can be sure of nothing when racing is on heavy mid-winter tracks, but one of those three is very likely to win, and that will cut down the cost of your tickets.
On one ticket take High Kin as an anchor with multiples in all other legs, then Barstorm as anchor with multiples and the same with Bach.
LEG 1
Ryder Stakes at Awapuni.
Anchoring something here would be a risk.
Musts:
Orbity (No 5) looked very impressive setting a fast pace and holding on under 59kg at Te Awamutu last start. Wide barrier may not be a disadvantage.
Mossimo (No 4) probably would have beaten some of these at Wanganui but for a wide barrier. Looks very promising and has to be included.
Dugan (No 1) had the advantage of a perfect trail in getting up to beat Aaja Nachle at Wanganui and from the inside barrier may get the same run. That may not be as big an advantage this time though.
Aaja Nachle (No 7) needed her run last start when beaten after a win and a stakes-placed second. Huge respect.
Fascination Street (No 8) got things her way and won stylishly at Te Teko. Filly with a future.
Vitesse Rose (No 10) is a determined filly who looked good winning at Te Rapa. The harder they go here the better she will be late in the race.
LEG 2 (Te Rapa)
Must:
High Kin (No 13), possible anchor. Looks beautifully placed to win this race for the second year on end with the same weight as 12 months ago. Trained on track and handles it magnificently.
Dangers:
Little Alfie Brown (No 6), another with great record at Te Rapa. Stylish winner last start and well placed here.
Intransigent (No 5), small horse who will appreciate drop from 57.5kg to 54.5kg. Huge win in Kiwifruit Cup at Tauranga two back. Beaten by weight last time.
Indikator (No 1) faces mammoth task under 60kg, but too good to miss the Pick6 because of him.
Uncle Shayne (No 12), hampered at critical stage last start. Nice winner Ruakaka time before.
LEG 3 (Awapuni)
Musts:
Barstorm (No 4) will go close with a repeat of his massive third in a stronger field than this at Ellerslie two starts back. Hampered there last start, so forget that. Gets a 2kg apprentice allowance this time and that could prove the decider.
Snowline (No 6) has been racing in better fields than this. Just beaten by Snave at Tauranga last start.
Dangers:
Mash (No 3) failed unaccountably at New Plymouth last start, but won too well time before to drop for this.
Quality Royal (No 7) sat three wide without cover last start and rider suspended for easing her down too early. May be starting to approach form. The value.
Platinum Lincoln (No 11), a Lisa Latta-trained runner who found the track simply too heavy at Trentham last start. Close improver's second before that.
LEG 4 (Te Rapa)
Probably the toughest leg. You need to go as wide as possible here.
Musts:
Sharakti (No 12) won nicely with late dash at Te Teko then struck trouble at Ruakaka last time. Staying type who should appreciate the step up in distance.
Ellie'O (No 10), another who did not enjoy good fortune in that Ruakaka race. Already a winner on this track.
Wattle Bay (No 2) will not find it easy from the outside draw and a weight of 58.5kg, but his form has been excellent. Needs to try to get an economical passage.
Chances:
A Soldier's Song (No 1), more rain would probably have helped and has to carry his full 59kg. Very tough and game though and has a nice barrier.
Yangming (No 13), not an everyday horse, but has ability. Twice a winner on this course.
Honeymoon (No 9) needs to step up after narrow Pukekohe maiden victory, but nicely bred Zabeel filly with plenty of upside. Should be improving.
The roughie:
Supreme Lady (No 5), apprentice claim will help.
LEG 5 (Awapuni)
Not easy and a spread is recommended again.
Musts:
St Ransom (No 3), honest type racing at best distance.
La Bella Sands (No 6), tough mare who will battle this out in the worst of the conditions. Track should be well cut up by this race, but she will be unfazed.
Maeva Davone (No 7), battling runs lately, but in overall slightly better fields than this. Alex Forbes' 1kg allowance will be valuable.
Hayabusa (No 5) could not have been more impressive leaving maidens easily last time at just her third start. Has to step up, but looks capable of it.
Dangers:
Lieutenant Lincoln (No 2) would appreciate bit better footing than will strike here, but has ability.
Share The Blame (No 9), not far away in last two and has outside claims.
LEG 6 (Te Rapa)Must:
Bach (No 2), massive run when third at Matamata two back when storming home late from well back. Got jammed up behind them on the inner at Tauranga last start. Should get the perfect possie this time from mid-field barrier. One of the bets of the day.
Dangers:
Rulaline (No 9) refused to give in when challenged late at Ruakaka last start. Should be still improving.
Rocket Queen (No 11) built to a decisive victory at Pukekohe. Handles heavy ground and should be close up.
Dancing On Tables (No 13), better run when second to smart sort in Beauty Run at Matamata.
Lion Red (No 1), not well off in the weights compared to, say, Bach, this time, but in consistent form.
Running Late (No 3), not far away third when racing out of his class at Trentham last start.
SUMMARY:
Best bet, Bach (Leg 6), next best High Kin (Leg 2).
