Racing: Amarelinha set for star role in New Zealand Oaks at Trentham

Amarelinha (outer) only just beat second favourite Needle And Thread (inner) at Ellerslie two weeks ago. Photo / Trish Dunell

The previous winners of the New Zealand Oaks may tell an important story about the chances of Saturday's hot favourite Amarelinha.

The Matamata filly could start as short at $1.50 in the last classic for the season, on Trentham's massive day which also hosts four other stakes races.

As good as the support racing is, Amarelinha should be the star of the show if she can win her first Group 1, which on raw ability she should be able to do.

Amarelinha only just beat second favourite Needle And Thread at Ellerslie two weeks ago but she had by far the harder run and didn't look happy on the wet track. When they met on a dry track in the Ellis Classic the start before, Amarelinha put five lengths on Needle And Thread in the space of 200m.

What the connections of her rivals and punters steering away from Amarelinha will be hoping is the 2400m on the huge track will stretch her brilliance to breaking point and leave her floundering in a sea of her own lactic acid at the 100m mark.

But while that often happens to the fastest contenders in the Derby, the New Zealand Oaks has been a safe haven for freakish fillies trying to extend past their natural stamina range.

Last year, Jennifer Eccles bolted away with the Oaks because of her sheer speed, with very little to suggest she will run 2400m again.

The same could be said of Savvy Coup a couple of years earlier while down the years classy fillies like Tycoon Lil and most famously Snap have won the Oaks simply because they were too good, even though they were not natural 2400m horses.

"I think most of the very good fillies who try the Oaks win it because the 2400m isn't as big a deal against your own sex and age," said Amarelinha's jockey Opie Bosson.

"And she is a good filly. She had to be to beat Needle And Thread last time after the start we had to give her.

"So I think she can still win even if the 2400m isn't her best trip and I think Needle And Thread up on the speed is the logical danger."

While admitting barrier 12 is tricky, Bosson says he will see how Amarelinha and her rivals all jump before deciding where he wants to be in the run.

Bosson is less confident with Brando (R6, No 2) in the $100,000 Wellington Guineas only because he respects the opposition so much, including stablemate Need I Say More who he rode to win last start.

"I can't split them and I am on Brando because Jamie [Richards, trainer] said so," said Bosson.

"He is very classy but he is coming back from a failure in Aussie whereas the other horse [Need I Say More] is in a really good place and racing so well.

"I think he will get handy from his wide draw but I also think Brando won't be far away from him and there are plenty of other good horses in that race, too.

"I've ridden them both in their work this week and I can't split them."

Trentham highlights

R4: $55,000 St Leger, 2600m.

R5: $70,000 Cuddle Stakes, 1600m.

R6: $100,000 Wellington Guineas, 1400m.

R7: $50,000 Lightning Handicap, 1200m.

R8: $400,000 NZ Oaks, 2400m.