The heavy rain forecast for today's Kentucky Derby threatens to turn the dirt track into a sloppy mess and has opened the door for a longshot to capture the 'Run for the Roses'.
Eleven of the 20 entries have more experience on turf or synthetic tracks and few have racedon a wet and muddy dirt track.
"Any time the track gets like that every longshot has a chance," said trainer Bob Baffert whose race favourite Lookin At Lucky (3-1) won the Rebel Stakes in his only dirt start.
Rain turning to scattered showers was expected through to post time.
Second favourite Sidney's Candy (5-1) has raced only on the synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita and Del Mar so how he handles the conditions is a mystery.
While Sidney's Candy performed well on a wet track at Churchill Downs last Saturday, stablemate Line Of David (30-1) does not like those conditions.
"I might consider not running him if it were to get really bad here tomorrow," Line Of David trainer John Sadler said. "But it would have to be something extraordinary."
Eoin Harty, trainer of American Lion (30-1), was uncertain how his colt would perform while Alexis Barba, who will saddle Make Music For Me (50-1), was unconcerned about the weather.
"He trained and worked on a muddy track," Harty said. "[But] I don't think it's going to be any comparison with what the track is going to be like if they get the rain that everybody is forecasting."
Stately Victor trainer Mike Maker said his Kentucky-bred bay could handle any conditions.
"Rain, snow, sleet or shine, it's not going to matter," he said of his 30-1 colt.
