Saint Emilion ridden by Matthew Camero. Photo / Getty Images
The slow track at Ellerslie will make it less than perfect conditions to throw out a couple of good things, but there are one or two that stand out as sound each way prospects.
Saint Emilion (No2, R4) has had a break since last racing, but it appears to have done him good. He beat stablemate Weather With You at the recent Cambridge barrier trials, running a fast 1200m. He is better over more distance than today's 1500m, but in his fresh state he could be difficult to pull back. The 60kg equal topweight does not make it easy, but he seems to carry decent weights well and should be in touch. Stablemate Break My Stride should be a danger even though stepping up in class.
Only six in the first race, but it's still a toughie. Astor (No4, R1) is favourite after his second to Melody Belle on Karaka Million night, but let's face it Melody Belle was in a different class. It was still sound and she rates, but Not Usual Heart (No5) will be a tough opponent. She raced away after leading in her maiden Avondale victory and won a barrier trial before racing on a heavy 10 surface, so today's rain-affected track should not be a bother. Inca Warrior (No3) looked good in wet conditions last preparation. Not an easy contest.
Blue Shadow (No4, R2) was beaten when well back on resuming, but it was not a disappointment. She is classy and underrated and will be fitter this time and for further help, rain affected tracks don't seem to trouble her. Marciano (No2) and Magnum (No1) could run decent races in what is another tough race.
Never easy to win a R65 off the back of a maiden clearance, but there was so much to like about Forever Clever (No4, R3) getting his first win he rates highly despite some useful sorts in the field. Full Of Talent (No6) and Blue Breeze (No2) should be included in multiple bets and Corporate Raider (No3) would be right in the party if he could reproduce his big effort on this track last time.
Race 5 is a wonderful betting race. Weather With You (No1) is all class and despite being fresh from a break will prove difficult to dispose of. He looked smart both here and in Australia last preparation and has drawn perfectly to get the right run. Richie McHorse (No9) has found his right form again and although he will soon need a middle distance, what should be a tough 1600m should suit today. He will be finishing strongly late. There is hardly a horse you can rule out in this. The trifecta will be worth picking up.
Unless there are a couple of showers this morning the footing should be quite testing for the second half of the programme. Comin'through (No13, R6) has shown he can manage such conditions on a number of occasions and with the fastest last 600m when third in the City Of Auckland Cup last start he has to rate highly. He is a little underrated and it needs to be remembered he raced well at the Brisbane winter carnival and was not far away in races like the Queensland Derby. He comes in well at the weights. Charles Road (No4) deserves to be favourite. He has not been easy, but Jake Bayliss appears to have him sorted and the pair will be tough again despite going from 53kg to 58.5kg. Don't drop Von Tunzelman (No2) yet. His run last start was not a bad as it looks on paper.
There is interest in the $100,000 Avondale Guineas even over and above the tote with the $1 million Derby around the corner. Scott Base (No1, R7) well deserves to be favourite after his devastating finish to take the $1m Karaka 3YO Classic from near last on the home bend. He has done very well since that run according to his joint trainers and they are not at all worried about a rain affected surface. He looks a potential stayer of real ability. Danzdanzdance (No15) turned in a remarkable effort to come from clear last in the Classic to be not far from the placegetters. The query is the footing, which might just shorten up her massive stride. If it doesn't she is right in it. Mission Hill (No2) might be a touch short on maturity, but has ability and stablemate Vin De Dance (No9) will be much fitter this time and fitter again on Derby Day. Fascinating race.
Contraband (No6, R8) was big on a winning debut and even bigger when third at Te Teko last time. He went around every horse and at no stage flinched in trying to pick up the first two. It will be tough going in the last and he will have what's necessary. He's A Freak (No7) is smart as is Joe's Legacy (No8) and Splendido (No4) is not out of it.
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