Racing: $1m Telegraph shapes up as great betting race

Bookmakers are prepared to risk Coup Align (right) at $9. Photo / Simon Baker

Head TAB bookie Thad Taylor describes Saturday's $1 million Telegraph as the best betting race he's seen in his time at the agency.

There's probably not much argument against that.

Taylor and his team made a couple of significant changes to the final field betting market when it yesterday replaced the futures market.

The biggest of those was to drop Melbourne sprinter First Command back from $6 second favourite to $8 third favourite.

"With the barrier draw (24, to start from 18) First Command was the obvious drifter," said Taylor.

Swift Alliance eased fractionally from $3.50 favourite to $4 favourite and the third Australian Monton is out to $10 from $8.

Punters might be interested to know the thoughts of astute Melbourne form analyst Deane Lester.

"I'm going to have First Command slightly ahead of Swift Alliance, but probably not by much," Lester told the Herald late yesterday.

Lester describes First Command as "a good reliable horse. He's got a good racing style by always putting himself in the race. If there's a fault probably the last little bit of a strong 1200m sees him out."

First Command won at 1200m when fresh at Caulfield two weeks ago, running a swift 1.8.38 under a hefty 59kg. He sat outside the leaders and worked to the front at the 250m.

"I reckon the horse sitting outside of him three wide took a bit of sting out of him. If he'd been able to drop back a length I'm sure he'd have come at them and steamed to the line and won more impressively."

First Command has won three times each at 1000m, 1100m and 1200m.

Lester said for much of the last 12 months Swift Alliance has looked like two different horses.

"He's been a bit hot and cold, but that win last start was him right back to his best.

"He runs a very similar race to First Command in that he'll be in the firing line throughout."

At nine, Swift Alliance has much the better barrier draw.

But First Command is such a good beginner, Melbourne jockey Dwayne Dunn can get him out quickly from his outside gate and cross most of those inside him before the Trentham dogleg kicks in properly. Very few will match him for early speed.

The TAB has installed Katie Lee the second favourite at $7.

"We see her as the obvious best chance for New Zealand to win the race," said Taylor.

"We originally had Coup Align ahead of Katie Lee, but we felt he was disappointing last start."

Wellington dodged Tuesday's heavy rain, but copped it overnight on Tuesday and yesterday morning.

Trentham, with 30mm, was better off than some parts of the district which had up to 50mm. The Trentham rating was pushed out to a slow 7 as a result, but predictions for a good surface for Saturday are bright.

"It's a really good drying day in Wellington today with strong winds and warm conditions," said stipendiary steward Ross Neal.

"I'm sure we'll have a pretty good track to race with on Saturday."

Locals with the best barrier draws are Katie Lee (5), Coup Align (9) and Twilight Savings (8).

TAB market: $4 Swift Alliance, $7 Katie Lee, $8 First Command, $9 Coup Align, $10 Monton, $12 Vonusti, $14 Twilight Savings, Mufhasa, $16 Atapi, $21 Eileen Dubh, $31 Celeris, Stupendous, $41 Pinsoir, Tip The Wink, Beautiful Girl, Miss Raggedy Ann, $51 Bulginbaah, $61 Riomoral, $81 Ego, $101 Balaq, Mae Jinx, Hinemoa, Elcee's Gold.

FAVOURITES

* Sydney's Swift Alliance retains favouritism, but is further clear of the others.

* Local Katie Lee is second favourite at $7.

* Melbourne form analyst Deane Lester prefers First Command over both.