Purdon doesn’t disagree. He just isn’t sure that Akuta will be at Addington tonight.
“He has done really well since he came back and we are thrilled with how sound he has been,” he said.
“But he is still working his way back to his peak fitness and he isn’t there yet.
“He can win but I’m a touch worried if they go really hard over 2600m he could be found just a bit short of fitness.”
Another concern for punters who see Akuta, Purdon and barrier one and think “good thing”, is it would be a shock to see the muscular pacer try to lead throughout because it is a quick front line and it has been a long time since he was put under any pressure in a standing start race.
Purdon said he wouldn’t be stunned, or worried, if Akuta ends up three back on the markers.
In some ways that could be the best thing at this stage of his comeback and with an economical trip he could still blast past rivals who simply aren’t as good as him.
But those taking the $2 fixed odds quote won’t feel all that comfortable if he has four or five rivals ahead of him starting the last 800m.
Summary: if he leads or trails on an average speed Akuta probably wins.
If he gets further back and Alta Meteor or We Walk By Faith have an easier run then they could outsprint him.
Purdon and training partner/son Nathan have taken six horses south, the region where Mark trained for more than half of his career, for the spring and more may follow later.
Purdon hasn’t driven a winner at Addington since Oscar Bonavena won the NZ Trotting Free-For-All in December 2023 and he will be back behind Oscar in tonight’s ITM Ordeal Trotting Cup.
Oscar and arch-rival Muscle Mountain both start off a 10m handicap. They are probably past their best but the only real threat to them, Bet N Win, isn’t starting tonight so one of the old boys should win.
“Oscar trialled well last week, I let him have his head as he needed a blowout and he has worked well this week,” said Purdon.
“I was impressed with how Muscle Mountain won last start though so he will be hard to beat. It might come down to luck in the running.”
Confessional could be the blowout chance of the front markers.
The stable also has Rubira, fresh up after winning the Queensland Derby in July, in a sharp 3-year-old race tonight and while he has barrier nine over the 1980m, Purdon said he can still win.
“He is getting better all the time and has turned into a really good 3-year-old.”
He is up against the in-form pair of Bar Louie and Always Dreaming, as well as the returning Got The Chocolates.
Earlier in the star-studded, 13-race programme Treacherous Baby (R6, No 6) takes on the boys in a strong Rating 60-70 with Purdon warning she has missed some work since her last win so could be vulnerable.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.