“And I think they will actually be better mares next season with the summer they have had under their belts.”
Tomorrow’s race is stacked with depth from Group 1 winners like Quintessa and Captured By Love, in-form and emerging mares Afternoon Seista and She’s A Dealer, and consistent group-race performer Marotiri Molly.
But while Quintessa and Captured By Love may have shown glimpses to rival Provence’s best form, she has them covered on almost every metric that should matter to punters.
Provence has developed into a wonderfully consistent miler, with her last four runs over 1600m at Group 1 level having returned three wins and a third, beating two long heads, in the Otaki Maori Classic two starts ago.
Her Trentham track stats are just as compelling, as she has won the TAB Mufhasa Classic and Thorndon Mile at Group 1 level on her last two starts in the capital.
And even though she is dropping back from 2000m in the Bonecrusher NZ Stakes last start, Marsh doesn’t see that as a concern.
“A lot of horses can go big miles dropping back from 2000m and she has had a good freshen-up so we really like her chances.”
That suggests Provence’s $7 is good each-way value but as is so often the case with big mile races, the market is even, with any one of seven or eight mares able to win without surprising.
The Wellington weather could also have a role to play, although the forecast, as much as they are of any use to anybody, suggests the rain expected earlier in the week may not arrive in the volume predicted.
While Group 1 racing dominates tomorrow’s card, Marsh suggests punters should save a few dollars for Circus Trix (R4, No 9) in the first of the black type races, the $150,000 Higgins Concrete Manawatu Classic for the three-year-olds over 2100m.
She raced in three strong fillies races before joining Marsh’s stable and won when back in an easy grade last start, but takes on New Zealand Derby placegetter Geneva tomorrow.
Circus Trix is not ideally suited to the set weights scale but is still the $6 third-favourite behind Geneva, who will have plenty of appeal at $3.40 from barrier 1.
Meanwhile, Marsh’s stable star and Horse of the Year in waiting Well Written is enjoying her well-earned spell, with her trainer already having pencilled in the first Group 1 of next season, which was this year named the Proisir Plate and run at Ellerslie, serving as the champion filly’s return race.
“Obviously there is a $500,000 bonus if we can win a race like that so that is the long-range target, but first we want to give her a really good spell,” he says.
“And then all going well, everything in her next campaign will be counting backwards from the Golden Eagle.”
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
