Merlin could be the best bet in tonight's City Of Auckland Free-For-All. Photo / HRNZ
Trainer Cran Dalgety says there is no doubt New Zealand’s best pacer will be fitter at Alexandra Park tonight.
The question is whether that will be enough for Republican Party to win the hottest race on one of northern harness racing’s biggest nights of the year.
The meeting features seven black-type races, including arguably New Zealand’s most exciting pacer Jumal in the $200,000 NZBS Harness Millions for three-year-olds, while Tour Party will also start as a red-hot favourite in the $100,000 Breckon Farms Cardigan Bay Stakes.
But the night’s other major races are so even that draws, luck and tempo look set to decide the winners and remarkably Republican Party (R8, No 6) is one of those who could need things to go right after a slightly lacklustre seventh in the corresponding race last Friday.
That 1700m dash was won by The Lazarus Effect after he has trailled while bigger names Republican Party, Akuta and Merlin all settled back early and never got into the race, the early-campaign curse for punters.
While there is no doubt Republican Party has been our best pacer for the past 18 months, his defeat last Friday coupled with his wide draw tonight has him rated a $4 chance, incredible for a horse who paid just $1.50 winning his second Auckland Cup on New Year’s Eve.
“We are willing to forgive him for last Friday and we tried to be very honest with the public that could happen,” says Dalgety.
“He was always going to be half a run short and the race shape was totally against him.
“He will be fitter this time but again we don’t see him being forward early with so much speed inside him, so he will be slightly vulnerable again.”
Of those drawn inside Republican Party, there is likely to be gate speed from We Walk By Faith (1), The Lazarus Effect (2) and Merlin (5), although trainer-driver Mark Purdon has indicated he will look to be conservative early on Akuta (3) so he can be more aggressive later.
That raises the very real possibility Merlin could be at front at the 1600m mark and be the one to catch after his storming third last Friday.
Dalgety also has Freeze Frame (R10, No 2) in against Jumal in tonight’s richest race and says being part of the quinella would suit him just fine.
“We hate raising the white flag but I think Jumal will cross to the lead early and if we can get his back and finish second that might be okay,” he says.
But the stable should claim the Cardigan Bay Stakes with Tour Party, Republican Party’s younger brother, who looks too advanced for his rivals, especially drawn inside the other two favourites.
There is a very strong female flavour to the other black-type races tonight, with big-money pacing races for the two- and three-year-old fillies, as well as the older mares, while greatly-improved trotting mare Belle Neige is favourite for the Lone Star Lyell Creek Trot.
Belle Neige (R6, No 1) is in great form but both her stablemate Hillbilly Blues (4) and Oscar Bonavena (2) had excuses in defeat last Friday and either could trump her tonight, especially if Hillbilly Blues crosses to the lead.
The draw in the juvenile fillies pace gives Daisy Bay (R7, No 1) the advantage but with so little race form in the line-up, it is hard to know whether she can stay in front – and if Lady Di (7) gains any advantage over her in the early shuffle, it will be hard to pull back.
The $150,000 Harness Million for three-year-old fillies is an odd race in that some of the key contenders are going into one of the richest races of their lives fresh up, which might make them vulnerable over 2200m.
That presents punters with a great each-way option in Queen Lizzy (R5, No 7), who has been honed in stronger races lately and if they go hard will out-finish many of these.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.