Old foe El Vencedor stands in Habana’s way in long road back to winner’s circle

Habana (outer) has had little go right since he won the Rich Hill Mile at Pukekohe on New Year's Day 2024. Photo / Kenton Wright

Tomorrow is D-Day for a good horse minus a good horse’s formline in the $120,000 Bayleys Challenge Stakes at Ellerslie.

Habana is a former Group 2 winner of the Rich Hill Mile, a race in which he beat El Vencedor, who dominates the market for tomorrow’s race.

Since they ran first and third in that Rich Hill at Pukekohe on New Year’s Day 2024, El Vencedor has gone from strength to strength, including multiple Group 1 wins, and become Horse of the Year.

Habana has placed just twice in 11 starts.

It is not all his fault, the gelding suffering a colic attack last summer that required surgery, and the road back has been covered in big weights and tough opponents.

“It is not easy to get them back to their best at this level,” trainer Lance Noble says.

“After he had his surgery he has come back in strong races, often carrying big weights and the two Group 1s he raced in during the spring have both proven very strong.

“Even look at this week. I picked this race out for him knowing he would only get 55kg, which will be the lightest weight he has carried in over a couple of years, and yet we end up taking on El Vencedor.

“Obviously he [El Vencedor] will be very hard to beat and we have to be realistic, we don’t know if our guy will ever come back to his absolute best.

“But his work is good, his attitude is too and I think this race suits so I’d be surprised if he can’t finish in the top four or so.”

While El Vencedor is a $1.65 favourite and should win, Habana’s $2.45 Top 3 price looks attractive off the back of Noble’s comments, or even the $4 price for Top 2 in a field that has some resuming stayers.

The obvious other danger is defending champion Meaningful Star, who has appeared to be closer to his best in his last two starts.

Noble suggests his best chance tomorrow is Frostfair (R4, No 5) in a rare Ellerslie open-grade sprint, in that it contains no horses who have won in this campaign.

Many are either resuming or still on the way up and Noble says that could aid Frostfair, who fooled him this time around.

“Being a year older, she has taken maybe one run more than I thought to come to her peak but I think she is there now and she is my best chance for the weekend.”

The lack of winning form means the 1300m event is even and tempo could be the deciding factor.

The Ellerslie card provides punters with plenty of value, as El Vencedor was the only odds-on favourite across the nine races.

One of the highlights is the $100,000 Eagle Memorial for three-year-olds, in which Wiremu Pinn rides loose favourite Towering Vision (R6, No 1), part of a good book of rides.

It isn’t the only back-type three-year-old race in the country tomorrow, with the $80,000 O’Leary’s Fillies Stakes at the Whanganui meeting having come up super strong.

All nine fillies have won at least one race, six of them being winners at their last start, including debutante winner Hey Dana, another trained by Noble in the Cambridge Stud colours.

“She is a filly we really like and while she is still on the improve, she is down there to try and get some black type,” he says.

“But it is a strong field and both War Princess and Lubeck were good at Tauranga last start so we know it won’t be easy.”

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.