Ohope Wins is hot favourite for today's NZ Oaks after this win in the Ellis Classic last start. Photo/Kenton Wright
If you back the filly who should win today’s $1 million New Zealand Oaks at Ellerslie, prepare to feel uncomfortable.
That doesn’t mean Ohope Wins won’t live up to her name in the Al Basti Equiworld-sponsored classic, but she will have to defy one of modern racing’s most prevalent trends to do so.
There are few things in racing more sensational than a come-from-last swooper and the “will they, won’t they” emotions they engender.
But in the modern racing world, they are also an endangered species: for every Chautauqua or on occasion Winx who can slingshot even the best of opponents, there are a thousand hard luck stories of horses who were running on while your money was running out.
It is simple mathematics: the horse racing gene pool is more even than it used to be and the tracks are better, meaning it has become harder for even the most superior equine to sit last and overpower their rivals as the leaders break 34 seconds for their last 600m.
That is not to say Ohope Wins will be sitting last in today’s Oaks, but she will likely be somewhere back there, not only because of her usual racing style but also her wide barrier draw.
The difference between Ohope Wins and most favourite backmarkers is punters know she can come from near last and round up even her staunchest rivals today.
She did something similar in the Sir Patrick Hogan, most importantly at Ellerslie, two starts ago before she raised the bar significantly higher in the Ellis Classic at Te Rapa last start.
Ohope Wins was a clear last at the 800m and still needed a miracle at the 400m but roared past her rivals, including today’s second-favourite Single Red, every stride in the last 100m looking like that of a future Oaks winner.
As stunning as it was to the eye, the sectionals were even more telling as she galloped her last 600m in 34.09s, almost a full second faster than her main rivals, a disparity incredibly rare at racing’s most elite levels.
While jockey Joe Doyle won’t want to be repeating those heroics today, half her opposition will be on their knees at the 400m mark, so if Ohope Wins can get a smooth run into the race until the top of the straight, her natural staying superiority should do the rest.
If the curse of the backmarkers does claim another victim, then Single Red, Autumn Glory, Tajana, Ariadne and Ultimate Habit are all good enough to become Oaks winners.
Tough draws and traffic woes could have favourite punters in two minds throughout today’s meeting, which has developed into one of the great race days on the New Zealand racing calendar.
The $600,000 Otaki-Maori Classic could have both favourites Pier and Waitak launching their challenges from the second half of the field as defending champion El Vencedor tries to run his rivals off their hooves from in front.
“This is a crucial race for him, he was better last start but needs to be better again,” says El Vencedor’s trainer Stephen Marsh, who has three in the race.
Also likely to get back and boom home is Belle Cheval, the clear top pick in the Eagle Technology Uncle Remus Stakes.
She has real X-factor but is also only two weeks out from her NZB Kiwi grand final, so while she should win, punters could be wise to be cautious.
The Avondale Guineas has a balanced field as the Derby awaits a male three-year-old to put his hand up as leader of the pack, with Aksil the most likely but Road To Paris another who could be in for a career-defining fortnight.
And the Avondale Cup is one of the best punting races of the season with the proven (which in translation means getting slower) warriors up against the younger trio of The Precursor, Kiwi Skyhawk and Sinhaman, who along with Santa Catalina, come in well at the weights.
** NZB Kiwi hot favourite Well Written will have her final public hit-out before our richest ever race at Ellerslie on Monday, March 2.
“We are thrilled with how she is handling everything and her work this week was great,” says trainer Marsh.
“We will give her a good gallop at the open track work session at Ellerslie the Monday before the race but she is spot on for where we want her.”
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.