Melbourne Cup: Japanese stayer the one to beat

Fame Game will be one of the hottest Melbourne Cup favourites since Phar Lap today. Photo / Getty Images

Unless he drifts further late in betting today, Fame Game will start one of the hottest Melbourne Cup favourites since the immortal Phar Lap.

Everyone backed Phar Lap into $1.72 in the 1930 Cup as Australians looked for a Great Depression diversion.

At $3.20 Fame Game was yesterday morning heading down a similar, but not identical, path until he eased back to $4 in most markets later in the day. There were no obvious factors behind that move, given the global liability on the Japanese staying idol is bordering on the national debt of a reasonably small country.

Although there has been solid backing yesterday for Chris Waller's Derby-winner from this time last year Preferment and for English stayer Trip To Paris.

Fame Game's Japanese trainer Yoshitada Manukata admitted yesterday there was some pressure in having such a hot Melbourne Cup favourite, but added that the most important factor was redeeming Japan's honour after the shock death of Admire Rakti half an hour after last year's Cup after suffering a heart attack.

"Because of that misfortune it has focused attention on the Melbourne Cup in Japan and that is a pressure."

Irishman Dermot Weld turned the Melbourne into an international event when he won it with Vintage Crop and this field included 11 Northern Hemisphere horses and several others purchased from Europe in the hope of winning.

Trip to Paris is a large chance for England after his classy second to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup. He looks as though 3200m is going to be his go. His trainer Ed Dunlop also has the sentimental favourite Red Cadeaux engaged. The 10-year-old oldtimer has a remarkable record of three Melbourne Cup seconds from four attempts. He looks in sensational shape for his age and will get the biggest cheer if he finally breaks through. French Jockey Gerald Mosse, winning jockey on Americain, has the ride this time.

Preferment is the safest each way bet. He looked the real emerging 3200m horse when he won the Victoria Derby. He backed that up this preparation with a dashing win in the Turnbull Stakes on this track two starts back.

His run in the Cox Plate was a lot better than the 9th placing suggests.

Preferment is a typical Zabeel, a horse that improves dramatically between three and four and Chris Waller has set him for this race all preparation. Any horse that can win at weight-for-age is a huge chance dropping back to handicap grade in a race like the Melbourne Cup.

Cup facts and figures

• Only 16 mares or fillies have won the Melbourne Cup in more than a century and a half. And most of them were outstanding types like Makybe Diva, Empire Rose, Light Fingers and Let's Elope. The only mare in the race this year is the John Sargent-trained Gust Of Wind and she's not the worst chance after her late finish into fourth in the Caulfield Cup.

• Stallions have won 69 Cups, geldings 50, colts (3YO) 19.

• Only six Southern Hemisphere-bred horses are in this Cup, five from New Zealand and one from Australia. The remainder are bred in the Northern Hemipshere.

• Biggest weight carried in a Melbourne Cup is the 68kg Phar Lap was lumped with in 1931, the year after he won it. He finished eighth to White Nose to whom he was conceding 24.5kg.

• Carrying weight is not recommended in Melbourne Cups - horses weighted between 52kg and 54kg have won the most - 24. Between 48kg and 50kg is next at 22 and 54kg to 56kg 20. The 50kg to 52kg have won 19.

• There are those who pour over these statistics in search of the winner. Their stats include the initials of names, barrier position, horse colour, racing colours, tote odds and the like. But don't fear, almost every winner defies history or stats in some form.

Melbourne Cup tips

1: Fame Game: World class Japanese stayer who turned in the best Cup trial with Caulfield Cup sixth. The ride was questioned. Fabulous at this distance and bad luck is his worst danger.

2: Preferment: Last year's Derby winner who has come up exceptionally well this preparation. Weight-for-age winner of the Turnbull and drops to a luxury 53.5kg. Has top class rider in Hugh Bowman.

3: Trip To Paris: Huge Caulfield Cup second. Ideal 3200m type and will be in the fight at some stage of the home straight.

4: Max Dynamite: Irish stayer with credentials. Second in a hurdle race two starts back in Ireland, but don't be fooled by that - Vintage
Crop did it before winning this race.

Best each way: Stablemates Preferment and Who Shot Thebarman
Best roughie: Almoonqith.
Weather forecast: Dry conditions with some cloud, predicted high of 22C.