Autumn Glory beat the boys in the Waikato Guineas then finished second in the New Zealand Oaks. Photo / Kenton Wright
Roger James knows more about winning the New Zealand Derby than anybody on the planet – but he isn’t quite sure how he is going to win this one.
It is not that James, who trains in partnership with Robert Wellwood, doubts his horsepower heading into tomorrow’s $1.25 million classic at Ellerslie.
But the clouds over his Derby horizon started with Wednesday morning’s barrier draw.
The stable has three winning chances in the Group 1 and remarkably, drew three of the four outside gates.
New Zealand Oaks runner-up and now Derby favourite Autumn Glory will jump from barrier 15, her filly stablemate Ariadne is one inside her at barrier 14 and Avondale Guineas runner-up Road To Paris is at barrier 13.
“I don’t know what we have done to deserve that,” James said.
“You couldn’t believe all three of them could draw out there and it is made worse by That’s Gold drawing so well at barrier 4.
“So we are going to have to get our head around riding tactics and what suits which horse.”
If you had to have somebody planning how to win a New Zealand Derby for you, it would be James, who won the classic for the first time 40 years ago with Tidal Light and most recently two years ago with Orchestral.
Three of his six Derby winners have been fillies and Autumn Glory is the favourite for tomorrow, after chasing home a genuine staying star in Ohope Wins in the Oaks 13 days ago.
“The Oaks hasn’t taken the shine off her at all, in fact she may be even better for it,” James said.
“She is a really progressive filly and she has the flair of a good horse so I think we have options with her.”
Ariadne may have been well beaten by her stablemate in the Oaks but copped a couple of checks, never fun for long-striding stayers, who take time to recalibrate their stride.
“She is the sort of horse who might be better going forward early as she is such a good staying type,” James said.
He said he has often identified his future Derby winners at the back end of their 2-year-old season and the horse who gave him that Derby feel last winter was Road To Paris.
“He moves like a Derby winner should,” James said.
The problem with Road To Paris is he also moves sideways, sometimes at full speed, when he gets into the clear and something catches his eye, or ear.
“He’d probably be our best chance if we knew he was going to do everything right but he is still working that out,” James said.
“And because of that, the wide draw doesn’t really help him as we’d prefer to see him with cover between horses.
“But we are putting side winkers on him and he can win but it is up to him now.”
With so many modern-day Derby winners coming through either the Waikato Guineas (February 7) or Avondale Guineas (February 21), James and Wellwood have the right lead-up race form with Autumn Glow, who won the first of those, and Road To Paris, who finished second to That’s Gold in the Avondale Guineas.
“We want pace in the race,” James said.
“I am a great believer that over almost any distance, the stronger the tempo, the better chance the really good horses have.
“But if the pace goes out of the race, That’s Gold could have a really big tactical advantage.”
James thinks the stable has a sneaky place chance in the NZB Kiwi with Zivou having drawn barrier 1 and set to get an economical trip, potentially even on the back of hot favourite Well Written.
“He had no luck last time but his work has been great since,” he says of the $9 place chance, who is even paying $5.50 to finish in the top four.
The stable also has Confesara (Race 2, No 9) as favourite in the Windsor Park Stud Trophy but James rates open sprinter Sweynesday (R4, No 4) as their best winning chance tomorrow, even though Alabama Lass has been a dramatic shortener in the Haunui Farm King’s Plate.
“It took two pretty good Aussies in Jigsaw and Arkansaw Kid to beat him in the Railway last start and he was three lengths clear of the rest of the locals,” James said.
“He will be very hard to beat, even though we got another bad draw with him.”
Roger James New Zealand Derby winners
2024: Orchestral (in partnership with Robert Wellwood)
2012: Silent Achiever
1999: Hades
1997: Zonda
1995: Roysyn
1986: Tidal Light (in partnership with Jim Gibbs)
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.