KEY POINTS:
Tough time on the punt today.
Even fields are the order of the day at Te Rapa and rain is forecast for the big Manawatu Cup day at Awapuni.
Both factors make it difficult for punters to line up an early Christmas present.
One of the better bets,
although he might come up shorter than value with the scratching of Mr Tipsy, is Kingsinga (No 2, R4). He is dropping in class from the Counties Cup in which he ran a good race despite being disadvantaged by an on-pace bias.
Even if he drops back here, the smaller field will suit and southerner Quantum Dude should ensure the race is run at pace.
You can make a case for and against most in this race and 10-year-old veteran Desert Flight, after two runs this preparation, should be ready to show something.
Monjarni (No 9, R1) got home strongly over 1600m when resuming on Avondale Cup day and looks suited to the step up to 2100m. The wide barrier draw is a slight question, but Craig Grylls has the talent to find her a decent run somewhere.
Superalloy (No 2, R2) finished a nice fourth behind Temple Hills at Ellerslie last start and strikes an easier option this time. He is a winner on this course, which always adds a few points to how you rate them at Te Rapa. Mohican Brave (No 4) is a real chance despite his ninth here last week. A slight easing of the ground might help.
Amaryllis (No 2, R3) looked good scoring on debut at Taupo in August then finished a nice fifth to Juice in stakes company at Hastings. She has had a break and should be prominent in this line-up.
The two starts Harris Tweed (No 5, R6) had in mid-winter showed sufficient potential to suggest a maiden win is now close at hand. He won a trial nicely on his home track at Cambridge recently which sets him up to be difficult to beat here.
In late August, Sam's Town (No 2, R7) finished only one length from Indacool in a R80 race then wound up fourth in the Wanganui Guineas. That is outstanding form for a horse dropping back to his rightful maiden grade and he should be at short odds to shed that tag today. Plenty of chances though, judging on trials and race form and if you're taking a quinella, it might pay to find a wide spread.
Race 9 is a tidy betting affair. Lots of chances, but Vonusti (No 10) will be difficult to beat. He got to the line strongly in the face of difficulties on Avondale Cup day and he should get the run of the race this time from his inside gate. Loads of talent here - including Cape Fear (No 4), Shan Dynasty (No 9) and Cape Le Paul.
The last is an interesting betting vehicle. The class is at the top and most of them will be in the Dunstan Stayers Final at Ellerslie. Align To Infinity (No 3) and Pentour (No 2) are classy stayers. Both will be improved for their most recent races and should be in the finish. Couple them with Krash (No 4) and Kaffiya (No 5) in multiples and you shouldn't be far away.
If the threat of rain for Manawatu eventuates it will make the meeting a nightmare.
Caught Out (No 11, R4) could be some value if the track softens.