KEY POINTS:
What odds would you take about the Auckland Harbour Bridge crashing into the tide?
Probably 1,000,000,000 to one.
The odds of a lion escaping from Auckland Zoo and eating someone would probably be around 2,500,000 to one.
And you wouldn't take less than 200,000 to one about our
league test team beating Australia in the next 15 games straight.
So, what then should be the odds of a horse winning a race five months from now?
Did we hear you say 30 to one?
That's what you should really expect.
But no, the boys at the TAB surprised a few when they opened up the early market for the Kelt Capital Stakes through the week.
If you can find some value anywhere, then good luck.
The favourite is Princess Coup at $6, which is only 80 cents more than she paid on race day to win last year's Kelt.
In an early market - and don't lose sight of this race being in October - you can understand an odds-setter not being prepared to take a risk on one certain horse.
But our TAB has the top 10 in the market at $16 or under.
That $16 shot is Magic Cape, who you could have got $30 about as the field walked into the barriers in last year's Kelt. He paid $7.40 for a place in finishing third.
The important thing to remember here is that this is what the Aussies call all-in betting - if you back one of these horses on the TAB's market and it doesn't get to the race, umm, I think it's called tough luck.
After a fair amount of pressure Australian bookmakers in betting at the moment for races like the Melbourne Cup now offer money back if a horse isn't nominated for the race, although you can request an all-in price this far out, which is almost guaranteed to be better.
Take the second favourite on our TAB - Pasta Post at $7.
It's well documented Pasta Post has soundness issues.
His real price should be $7 to make it to the race, not win it, and I'm not sure that would be overs.
Four horses inside $10 five months out from a race is hard work on the punter. It would be a surprise if there were four inside $10 on race day.
The Caulfield/Melbourne Cup nominations are on August 1.
When Australian bookmakers bet on either race in the early stages from that date they'll frame their markets to around 145 per cent, which is a complicated equation.
A normal race on raceday in Australia would bet to around 115 - 117 per cent.
The further out on percentages you go, the less value there is for the punter.
Our TAB's Kelt Capital Stakes market is operating at the moment around 175 per cent.
As an example, if the TAB trimmed the market back to 145 per cent it would add around 20 per cent to each horse's price.
Domebet has Kibbutz and Efficient as its Melbourne Cup joint favourites on $17.
Littorio and Tuesday Joy are on the next line at $21 followed by last week's stylish Japanese winner Admire Jupiter on $26. Last year's Caulfield Cup winner Master O'Reilly, who looked stunning, if luckless, in Melbourne on Saturday has been brought in from $31 to $26
Current star Weekend Hussler is all the rage in the Caulfield Cup, $8 being the best you can find, if you are lucky.
Punters have rushed to back Weekend Hussler in the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup double since the champ's trainer Ross McDonald declared he would probably miss the Cox Plate this year in favour of the Melbourne Cup, which he says the horse will win.
Yes, the ground might have been very deep and testing at Matamata, but there were some smart performances.
Stone Garden, Pindy and Mill Vinnie are horses who haven't finished winning. It's been a while coming for Stone Garden and the Kelso stable has been very patient.
The way he got through the ground suggests there is a good handicap win about to happen. Pindy is under-rated. Put some moisture in the ground and he's hard to beat.
