KEY POINTS:
When Luca Cumani finished second with Purple Moon in last year's Melbourne Cup he swore he'd keep coming back to Australia until he won the great race.
That might be only hours away.
Everything in the past three weeks suggests Mad Rush has been building towards running the
race of his life in this afternoon's A$5.5 million Melbourne Cup.
The English stayer has all the right credentials.
There are many pointers to finding Melbourne Cup winners, but none as strong as the unluckiest runner in the Caulfield Cup.
In a decade, there hasn't been an unluckier Caulfield Cup horse than Mad Rush, who would have won for sure if he hadn't struck traffic problems in the last 500m of the race on October 18.
The Caulfield Cup run is, of course, a pure form pointer, but there is another even more important element, being unlucky in that race means a horse escapes a re-handicap penalty.
The 2kg may not appear that significant, but in Melbourne Cups it can mean the difference between victory and finishing fifth.
Weight is a crucial element in long distances staying races that are run at the terrific tempo of a Melbourne Cup.
Mad Rush has greatly impressed track watchers at Sandown in the past 10 days or so.
Another plus is having an Australian rider as experienced as Damien Oliver in the saddle.
Oliver is the most experienced Melbourne Cup jockey in the race.
He now has a feel for the horse after Caulfield, which could be critical.
Cumani could not be happier.
He watched the Caulfield Cup on television back in England and also saw his horse Bauer win the Geelong Cup two weeks ago.
"I watched it at 6.30am. It's the first time I've won a race at 6.30am."
He was delighted with what he saw when he landed in Melbourne.
"He is in excellent form. He is a very similar type of horse to Purple Moon, who was also unlucky in the Caulfield Cup. This is a mile-and-a-half horse who we hope can stretch it out to two miles."
Asked if he was confident of winning, Cumani said: "It's a horse race and I never get confident of winning one of those.
"I think more on hopeful and on the hopeful scale you could say I'm very high."
Fellow European trainer Dermot Weld, who seriously knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup, rates Mad Rush as the horse to beat, although, he says, Septimus would leave the others behind if he struck a wet track.
Septimus is regarded as the best stayer in Europe and he might need to be that and perhaps even a bit more if he's to win this under 58.5kg topweight.
Stayers can carry big weights in Europe, essentially because the first half of the race is run slowly and horses are required to really carry their weight for the final 400m to 500m.
Melbourne Cups are different. They are run at a very high cruising speed, off which is launched a brutal final thrust from as far out as the 900m to 800m.
Big weights have buried many top horses in Melbourne Cups.
The suggestion is this Cup will be run even faster than most.
Aidan O'Brien has indicated his three runners Septimus, Honolulu and Alessandro Volta will all press forward early. Honolulu has drawn barrier 24 and might go across and lead. If one of the Coolmore horses makes the lead they will pour the pressure on.
Last Friday, the stable were advised by stewards that they would be watching for indications of team riding.
And O'Brien assured stewards they would be giving each of their horses the best possible chance of winning.
Barbaricus could be the bolter. He impressed when third in the Caulfield Cup and again when caught only in the last stride in last Saturday's Mackinnon.
He's a brave fighter who will be in the leading group and if he can find the front somewhere in the home straight he could take some pulling back.
