Mike Dillon: Rain turns big race into lottery

COMMENT

If we get the rain today the MetService was promising it might pay to take your lucky numbers in the $30,000 Great Northern Foal Stakes at Ellerslie this afternoon.

The race will become a lottery.

It will be made no easier by the fact the two favourites, Savute and Royal Babe, will probably take their place regardless of track conditions.

Savute is to be spelled immediately after the race and co-trainer Richard Yuill says he is not sure how Savute copes with rain-affected footing.

"He didn't manage it too well here at Takanini on Tuesday morning, but then 60 horses had already worked on a strip of ground 4m wide.

"That's not like normal raceday conditions."

Savute is a long strider, who could be greatly inconvenienced by having to shorten his stride if he is not managing what could be a wet track.

It will be a great shame if Royal Babe and Savute are hampered.

Both were highly impressive in winning last start, Savute's debut victory at Te Rapa suggesting he could cope with a step up to a race like this.

Don't make the mistake of taking the racing stats too literally in this race if the track comes up soft or heavy.

The only horse with winning form in soft or heavy is Sharka Zulu, but trainer Stephen Autridge said after that Wairoa win that the colt, in fact, was not happy in rain-affected ground. Autridge was proved right when Sharka Zulu finished 13th on a very wet track at Ellerslie three weeks later.

Pin High could be the hurdle for the two favourites. She has impressed with the way she has finished strongly in all three starts so far and if she can get through the conditions she could swamp the opposition in the final stages. Pin High each way might be the bet.

If the rain comes, you have to look for the mudders. Floydeboy (No1, R5) is one of them. When the fields came out he looked to have a bit against him with 57kg and barrier No 16. With an improving Claire Anderson claiming 3kg the weight is no longer a problem and the outside barrier draw will be an advantage in the wet.

Floydeboy has a three-from-three record in heavy ground and showed a level of fitness when he dead-heated for first in a Matamata barrier trial on May 11.

Tee Cee (No7) has won his only start in the wet and the likes of Cheetie (No5) and I Rock My World (No12) come right into it. At 53.5kg, Cheetie is on a much lighter weight than in her last campaign.

Backing jumpers in their debut is a risk, but Real Vision (No7, R1) might give a good sight. He is undoubtedly the class flat galloper in this field and was beaten only a neck by The Wok in his jumping trial at Cambridge recently. If he clears the fences cleanly the opposition will have a job on their hands.

The game's not fair if Jugadora (No6) doesn't win a race soon. She has yet to miss a place in six starts, has been finishing strongly and, on a wet track, that's going to be important today.

Tanami Sun (No2) has a good record in the wet and will be improved for his first-up Paeroa race recently. The outside barrier draw will assist.

Al Kojapa (No3, No7) probably showed the benefit of his first-up effort when narrowly beaten at Rotorua last start. A wetter track here would suit and he looks close to winning form.

If the conditions got deep and testing, St Reims (No3, R8) probably would not be suited, but on looser ground he could be a fresh-up danger to the open sprinters. His recent trackwork at Cambridge has been sound and this looks a winnable race for a Derby winner.

Lumping 57kg will not be easy if the going gets testing late in the day, but Millnorm (No1, R9) could still be hard to beat. His fast finish into third at Te Rapa last start was a real eye-catcher. Tantalic (No10) was disappointing last week, but look for him to do better if the track is wet.

You would normally say a horse like Auckland Blues (No1, R10) has too much class for dodgy conditions, but his wet-track form is useful. He was beaten only a head when resuming last start.