KEY POINTS:
Bonjour is a better prospect for today's $65,000 Wealleans Matamata Cup with the continuation of the rain.
And that's not because he's an absolute mudder - he's not - but the conditions rule out many of his main dangers.
Bonjour can cope, rather than enjoy, an 'off" surface,
but many of the other form runners can't.
Bonjour's $100,000 Merial Mile win last start was stunning and even though up 3kg, he will take just as much beating today if he can get purchase on the Matamata surface.
The wet track brings Bellevue Lass right into the race and the other value runners for the trifecta are Ben Hogan and The Sportsman. Although not a noted mudder, Kirra Sand, on her home track, could get into the money.
The consistent Shotgun Start (No1, R2) should finally quit maidens on his home track.
The winner Casali pinched too big a break around the home bend when he finished second last start and the step from 1600m to 2000m is going to help.
Storm Keeper (No5, R3) has been racing consistently, including a nice second at Ellerslie and has the wet track form to back up his chances. Carib (No1) went the race of an improver when resuming at Paeroa last start and will appreciate the step up in distance. Hassi Messoud (No3) is another who does not mind some rain.
You wouldn't normally consider a Volksraad horse on a rain-affected track, particularly one resuming from a break, but Le Rendezvous (No1, R4) wasn't hopeless on a slow track when third on debut to Keepabit and Russian Conquest at Te Rapa. He has plenty of ability, has had a trial to fit him for this and has only to cope with the conditions to give this field a fright. Capistrano Angel (No8) looked similarly talented last season and has won a barrier trial.
Waitui Fox (No4, R8) is better than his record looks and is a good value runner. He came back from a break with a sound sixth in much stronger company at Hastings last week and won't mind the change to softer conditions. Racing on his home track is another advantage. That was not a bad run by Cross Roads (No7, R10) at Pukekohe last start, when running on over 1300m. He gets his chance here at 1600m in a mixed field.
At Hawera, you can probably take the short odds about Nom De Jeu (No1, R5) despite him having been twice backed and beaten lately. He is steadily getting the hang of things and being a dead-set stayer he will approve of the step up to 2100m for the first time.
Although only 11th, Hi Yo Gotcha (No5, R6) wasn't that bad at Ellerslie last start. She got back in a big, bunched field and made a little ground late. This will be an entirely different type of race and she can get some of the stake. One of her two wins was in the heavy stuff.
Mickey (No6, R7) did not get a proper crack at them in the home straight at Hastings last week. That was a better field than this and he should go close here.
The Hawkeye At Stoney Bridge Stakes is a great race despite the conditions. You have to go for the wet trackers and Aimee's Idol (No2, R8) and Ististar (No3) appeal and even Rosetti Bay (No4) is not out of it as a trifecta chance. Rosetti Bay won this race last year as favourite on a good track. She won't get that today but she's won on a slow surface.