KEY POINTS:
Mark Walker likes his horses to do the talking.
But he's happy to share one memory about Princess Coup heading into today's A$1 million ($1.67 million) Australian Cup at Flemington.
The last 600m of today's great race will be crucial to Princess Coup's connections, not to mention her
value as a broodmare.
Walker knows that final 600m at Flemington intimately - watching Princess Coup, with Kerrin McEvoy aboard, getting beaten by Sirmione in the Mackinnon Stakes last November was one of his most agonising moments as a trainer.
It wasn't the worst ride he'd seen on one of his horses, but it was close.
The worst - and we won't even mention the horse or the rider - was in the Queensland Derby a handful of years ago.
Fair suck of the sausage, you couldn't believe it.
Walker certainly couldn't. For 10 minutes he stood with his back pressed to the birdcage grandstand wall, staring at an imaginary object and unable to speak.
Let's just say McEvoy rode an ill-judged race in the Mackinnon.
Walker and his owners want that Australian group one victory back and it would be sweet for them if Princess Coup narrowly knocks off Sirmione this afternoon.
And that's the way punters see it - the pair are the first two favourites.
"Let's hope this makes up for the Mackinnon," said Walker simply yesterday.
Only a handful of words, but you knew what he was thinking.
On Princess Coup's winning run in the 1800m George Stakes at Caulfield last start, eclipsing Sirmione, how can they beat her today?
A wet track would have been the only other danger, but they've predicted clear skies and 35C in Melbourne today.
They're betting $2.70 on her in Australia and that's good value. We're $2.40 and you can even make a case that's not bad.
Sirmione and Miss Finland are considered the only two serious dangers to her.
Working out how the Ellerslie track will play today is about a 3 to 1 chance.
ARC racing manager Butch Castles, understandably, doesn't have much time for penetrometers, particularly after Wednesday's track came up as dead and was downgraded, without rain, to the worst side of slow. He walked the track yesterday after a 2.3 reading came up.
The real complication for punters is not the depth the third-day fields will go into the track as much as where the winners will come from - will it suit horses on the speed or will the swoopers get home? We will be a lot wiser after Race 2, but that doesn't help this column.
If you took a punt, you'd say the swoopers will be suited.
On that basis, it's going to make it difficult for Sir Slick in the $200,000 NZ Stakes, but he's such a wonderful horse you want to see him do it.
The bet might be southern mare O'Reilly Rose for a place. She was at $8 with the TAB last night and if she's something like $3 a place today she's good value. There was a lot to like about her finishing run at Otaki last time and she won't mind how much they chip into the track.
They probably can't beat southerner Final Reality (No1, R1) in the opener with a 2kg claim. He was caught wide behind Alamosa at Otaki, has only 56kg in a handicap this time and conditions should suit him perfectly.
All In Trouble (No8, R3) is smarter than his record suggests. He has grown up a lot mentally and his last-start third at Trentham brings him right into this race. Ram's Dream (No9) is better than his last two starts suggest.
The hugely-talented filly Crossyourheart is probably going to be vulnerable under her 59kg the way the track is likely to race. She is a speed horse and they are unlikely to be suited. Rios (No2, R5) has only 1kg less, but is likely to be better suited to the pattern of this race. He's right up there with the best 3-year-olds and any chip in the track will be very suitable. If the going is suiting the firm-track horses, Mufhasa (No4) is a big chance. His win last start was justice for his unlucky Te Rapa run.
