KEY POINTS:
Take the short odds on The Heckler at Ellerslie today.
If he arrives on track in the same condition that saw him make a stunning winning debut on Boxing Day, he'll be winning again.
The Heckler had to work both ends of that race and stuck on to win with reasonable comfort.
Indications are that his trackwork lately has been top class and don't be surprised if he proves to be the one to beat in the Karaka Million at the end of the month.
The two recent winners Corsage and Mexican Rose have not been as lucky in the barrier draw today.
That win by Sir Fortriss (No 2, R1) at Ellerslie last start was no fluke. He goes up 2kg for that win, but what will help his back-running style is the very small field. If they run along at any speed, he's going to be difficult to hold out again. Look for Mill Vinnie (No 3) to do something better than he produced in the Sir Fortriss race last start. He's a lot better than that and was coming off a short freshener last time.
Justa Kinda Magic (No 5, R2) looks a big, rawboned type that will get stronger with his racing. He looked good winning on debut then fought hard for a close third at Ellerslie at his only subsequent start. Each-way today.
Jungle Boots (No 1, R7) looks an exceptional talent in the making. His maiden debut win was stunning, then he copped no luck at Te Rapa and raced too greenly at Ellerslie at his last start. Given that race was won by subsequent Guineas winner Le Baron, it was a top effort. He has to carry 57kg topweight in a handicap this time, but there is not much scale in the weights and he should cope. He's one to stay with. So is stablemate Glamorous Girl (No 3), who had no luck when unplaced behind Alagant Satin in the Eight Carat Classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. Previously she was a remarkably easy maiden winner on this track. Only maidens going places can produce a sprint like Foneeleven (No 2) turned on to win by three lengths here last start.
Sun Ruler (No 12, R6) will have taken a lot of experience from his Te Aroha debut third. He might be a bit under the odds again, but if he comes up at close to $4 he's worth an each-way investment, even though it looks as though staying is definitely going to be his forte. There was a lot to like about the dashing finish into second by Nothingbuthetruth (No 9) at Te Aroha. He looks another promising stayer on the way through.
Tabulate (No 3, R9) will find this easier than the Dunstan Championship Final and struck no luck in that race at all. The problem here is the wide barrier draw at the 2100m start. Leith Innes probably has no option but to drop back. In a big field he's then going to need luck, but if he gets it Tabulate can win. Jessardo's (No 6) form is stylish and the 3kg claim will be useful. Coolross (No 10) should be fitter for two runs back.
Despite her 58kg topweight, Katy Keen (No 1, R8) is going to take plenty of beating in the Marton Cup at Awapuni today.
The weight won't make it easy for her, but she's racing into form and she might just come up at a touch over the odds here. Penitentiary (No 4) is well capable of taking this at odds and should be in your multiples.
Albus (No 4, R1) goes straight from maidens to a strong one-win race, but there was plenty to like about his victory on this course last start after having to work hard early to take the front. This time he's drawn the rails.
Swipe (No 5, R7) is a stayer of real promise. He faces a reasonably tough field today, but is in the right shape to make it three in a row. Halls (No 1) should be tough despite the 58kg and southerner Never Plead Guilty (No 4) will be improved for his last-start run at Wingatui. He might need another, but don't leave him out of multiples.
Morelle (No 2, R10) should have won at Ellerslie last start. He's drawn wide in a big field and although he can still win, he might be too much of a risk if his odds are less than $3 - and that's possible.
