Mike Dillon: Easter Mile trifecta will provide a good return

Mike Dillon

You can't find anyone who can remember an Easter Handicap that was easy to sort out.

A group one metric mile at Ellerslie - fearsome.

Today's running is hardly a big punt race, but it will carry the biggest tote turnover of the day.

You're almost better to take a very wide, very small percentage trifecta because the biggest certainty of the race is that the trifecta dividend will be big. Possibly, very big.

The horses you simply can't leave out are Ginga Dude (No 5), Dane Julia (No 6), Rios (No 10) and Occidentalis (No 18) .

Then the next tier could be horses like My Astron (No 3), Dezigna (No 4), Pinsoir (No 8), Bella Renza (No 11), Irish Opera (No 13)and Veloz (No 16).

Tote breakers are Mirkola Lass (No 7), Loaded Command (No 17) and Ebony Babe (No 19), if she regains the field. Not impossible, but heading down that path.

If you prefer each-way betting at odds, Occidentalis, Loaded Command, Rios and Ebony Babe are chances for good returns.

Kings Win (No 1, R1) could be under the odds in the opener simply because he's won his past three starts. He jumps up in class, although not dramatically, with the same weight as he won a special conditions race on this track last start. He's pretty smart and can win. Conchord (No 9) hung badly with no explanation at Trentham last start. Ignore that and go here on the close third in a similar race to this at the last Ellerslie carnival. Interesting runner here - Eighth Army (No 2). He's a million-dollar horse who won three races for Lee Freedman in Melbourne, the last of them two years ago, then went completely off the boil, his latest form being woeful. He's back here with Don Sellwood and was narrowly beaten at Tuesday's Cambridge barrier trials.

You expect decent fields in $15,000 maiden races and Race 4 has produced one. Lots of chances and Syndrome (No 8) is definitely one of them. He got buffeted a bit in the home straight on debut at Otaki and did well to finish a close second. He looks the sort of horse who will go on and from a reasonable draw looks a fine each-way chance. Montetra (No 1) is a win waiting to happen and you probably need to have Tiesto (No 2) in your multiple bets.

Bally Duff (No 5, R5) looked huge flashing home for a close second on debut at Pukekohe. The fact his victor on that occasion, Donthassleme came out and destroyed them at Te Aroha last week will do his chances here no harm. Bear Heart (No 1) is the only winner in the field and he's had two victories, giving him a big chance.

In the past month, it's doubtful there's been a more dominant staying performance through the grades than the winning effort of Calatrava (No 8, R6) on this track two weeks ago. Her form had been mixed, but the better efforts were excellent and she topped them off beautifully in running away to score by 8 lengths. There is no apprentice allowance this time, but she stays in the same grade and with Craig Grylls aboard goes up only 2kg. She certainly would have won with

an extra 2kg last time. There are a few chances. Sunrize (No 1) is a horse, who because of problems, has not reached the level he looked capable of, but he showed with a solid-finishing third to Calatrava two weeks ago that he's nearing peak fitness. He's better than many of these. Hard to leave Dampierre (No 2) out of multiples.

Race 7 is difficult. Lumination (No 2) is probably the safest bet. He looked home until run down at Tauranga by All In Black, who is very smart. The better track this time will help. Cape La Paul (No 4) and Fistral Bay (No 7) are value runners.

Having already said Calatrava's win was a staying standout, there was nothing wrong with the win of Showcause (No 6, R9) the same day at Ellerslie. The only word of caution here is he has plenty still to learn and he had all favours in running last time. If he gets them again he can make it two on end. Revoke (No 5) is smart and a value runner could be Xan Xan (No 13) who has had little luck lately.

Catalina (No 4, R10) chased home a smart type in Panama here two weeks ago. She gets her chance from a nice barrier here. Justacross (No 5) had to cover ground and come from a long way off them to get third at Tauranga last time. There are a dozen chances, but one to include is Alpinista (No 7). There was a lot to like about the way he ran away from the opposition in his maiden Paeroa win.