KEY POINTS:
For a decade the Taylor Mile has been New Zealand's fastest harness race.
Tonight it could be the shortest.
Because while the Woodlands-sponsored sprint has actually been extended to 1700m it could well end up being just a 250m explosion of pacing power.
The $100,000 4-year-old dash brings
together harness racing greatest rivals - Changeover and Gotta Go Cullen - and the result may hinge on one simple question.
Can Changeover come off Gotta Go Cullen's back and outsprint him over 250m?
If you think he can then you have to be on Changeover, especially at around $3 on the fixed odds.
If you think the answer to that question is no, then Gotta Go Cullen looks a certainty.
If you don't know, you are in good company.
The men behind the two great stallions, Tony Herlihy who trains and drives Gotta Go Cullen and Geoff Small who trains Changeover, are hedging their bets.
Both know logic suggests Gotta Go Cullen will lead from barrier one and Changeover will trail him through, almost certainly waiting until the passing lane to launch his bid.
What happens next is anybody's guess.
"I'd like to think if we are in front then we could hold him up the straight," said Herlihy.
"My horse shouldn't be coming back to him at the end of only 1700m."
Herlihy is happy with the way Gotta Go Cullen has progressed since downing an unfit Changeover in the Kumeu Stakes two weeks ago.
A natural leader, Gotta Go Cullen also has the luxury of the race containing few horses capable of attacking, meaning he should be able to dictate his own tempo and put the foot down before the top of the straight.
That would ensure Gotta Go Cullen was in full flight and almost negate the advantage of the passing lane - the race would effectively become a 250m dash with Gotta Go Cullen having a 10m head start.
Under those circumstances he should win.
There is no doubting Changeover was a better horse than Gotta Go Cullen last season but we haven't seen enough of him this term to know whether he is still superior, or even as good.
The imponderable with Changeover is how much hard spring racing dented his physical prowess or even his will to win.
He was a strong fourth without doing anything spectacular in the Kumeu Stakes but has worked well since.
"I think a lot will come down to how much Tony (Herlihy) gets away with in front," said Small. "If he gets too easy a time then maybe my fella could go super but still not win."
One less tangible factor in the race than the draws and possible sectionals is an annoying habit of Gotta Go Cullen's.
While he has a great record in front he often waits for his opponents when clear, casually cruising until the threats arrive.
He did that as a juvenile, but more worryingly, repeated it at Cambridge in January and even last start he was reluctant to run away from his opponents.
In the past he has been good enough to overcome it. Whether he can expose such an Achilles heel to Changeover is another matter.
