How to tackle the TAB bookies at the Karaka Millions meeting

Vegas Queen in Race 3 looks a great value bet at $12 at Ellerslie today. Photo / Kenton Wright

It is one of racing’s biggest meetings of the year but if you are going to make it as far as the after-party you might need to back a winner along the way.

Here is a simple guide on how to tackle the TAB on the huge six races (but remember, bet your coffee money, not your rent money).

Race 1, 4.24pm: Good mares racing but Mary Shan is more proven than most of these and beat Horse of the Year El Vencedor on this track last start.

The best horse in the race is Provence and she can win but was a late addition to this race instead of going to the trials.

Suggested bet: Mary Shan (2) each way.

Race 2, 4.59pm: Very even three-year-old sprinting race with many of these horses yet to reach their peak and some racing short of their best distance.

Belle Cheval has real class, as does her stablemates To Bravery Born, Kings English and Drops Of God, while To Cap It All ran fifth in the G1 Telegraph against the older sprinters last start.

Suggested bet: Not a race to go hard on but, if you really wanna play, Belle Cheval (No.13) maybe the best chance.

Race 3, 5.34pm: A very good race to bet into even if the overall quality is high.

A lot of talented four-year-olds but after an odd Rich Hill Mile some of the big names have form queries.

That opens the door for horses like Vegas Queen, who is fast, tough and in form, while Checkmate should be getting fitter and gets superstar jockey Damian Lane.

Victorian mare Knobelas heads a bunch of others who can win including She’s A Dealer, Hinekaha and Tuxedo.

Suggested bet: Vegas Queen (10) each way at $12 with Checkmate (3) at $10 a nice cover option.

Race 4, 6.13pm: The Millions for the babies, where Kinnaird takes on a bunch of flying fillies.

He has the golden recipe of being Te Akau-trained, Opie Bosson-ridden and with blinkers added, so the big strong boy is the one to beat, but any one of De Armas, Dream Roca, Torture or Stromlinien could win with the right trip.

Suggested bet: Kinnaird (1) to win.

Race 5, 6.55pm: There are two ways to approach this: You can either take the short odds on glamour girl Well Written or maybe shop for place value somewhere else.

Well Written is very fast, has the perfect draw and is ready to go so should win but her $1.50 may only be of multi interest to some punters.

La Dorada should slot straight across to be handy and maybe even on Well Written’s back in a race that could see the tempo slow through the middle stages so will get her chance.

Suggested bet: $1.50 too short for the favourite so take your pick out of Affirmative Action (2) or He Who Dares (3) as a place bet both around the $3 mark.

Race 6, 7.28pm: The elite sprinters in the Railway but for all the class of the field you keep coming back to the three speedsters: Alabama Lass and the two Aussies in Arkansaw Kid and Jigsaw.

Alabama Lass is beautifully in at the weights and at her peak could jump, lead and win but Jigsaw is a big strong horse who likes to roll forward and that pair could create trouble for each other.

Arkansaw Kid could settle just off them and brings proper Victorian G2 form but that also means carrying the topweight.

Suggested bet: Arkansaw Kid (1) to win but you can make a case to back both him and Jigsaw as Alabama Lass gets a bit too short.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.