How to tackle harness racing’s biggest punting day

Jumal is very short on the fixed odds but the multi bet anchor at Addington. Photo / Ajay Berry

1: The Cup, Republican Party (R12, No 5): The little fella isn’t the best horse in the race but I’m not sure there is any value in taking $1.60 for the champ Leap To Fame, unless of course you want to say you backed him the day he won the Cup, which he probably will do.

Republican Party could get out to $5 or more because of the name recognition for Leap To Fame and Aussie punters’ love for Kingman and Luke McCarthy.

If you end up getting $5.50 or $6 for Republican Party you are getting each-way odds for a pacer who can win and shouldn’t miss a place.

Or you could be cunning and take about $2.50 for him to finish in the top two.

2: The Dominion: Arcee Phoenix (R10, No 4): One of my favourite races of the season, but also a race with doubts around the leading contenders for one reason or another.

Victorian mare Jilliby Ballerini could be special and smash them but has only had one standing start and would never have seen anything like today, either on or off the track.

The old boys of New Zealand trotting, Muscle Mountain and Oscar Bonavena, can both win and either could do it in style, but they may also be a length or two down on their peak of yesteryear.

Bet N Win and the talented but erratic Gus have to cop second line draws, while Mighty Logan can win but was only average last time.

By a process of elimination the best each-way bet is Arcee Phoenix. He has proven he can travel and win, has handled Cup Day before and has won the Inter over 3157m mobile.

So the big Victorian looks a top each-way bet at $9.

3: Sires’ Stakes Final, Jumal (R8, No 3): Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way, not that a $200,000 Sires’ Stakes Final should be easy. But Jumal has been brutal on his rivals and from barrier 3 has a heap of ways to win this and not many ways to lose this. The mini multi-anchor for the day.

4: Nevele R Final, Arafura (R9, No 5): Her Ashburton heat win was a real statement and she has a good shot at getting the lead down the straight the first time, especially as it could be stablemate Winelight (2) in front.

But regardless of who leads it is hard to imagine they would park this tough filly and leave themselves vulnerable for the swoopers.

Her price is short enough but it’s hard to make a logical case to back something else.

5: Junior Free-For-All, Wag Star (R6, No 1): Has been going well without any luck in the best open class races and drops back a level here. Has gate speed and the all-important marker pegs draw so those working wider will find it hard to get around him.

He is a good each-way bet even though Chase A Dream’s best is better.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.