Merlin is the best horse in the Spring Cup tonight but his 20m handicap is a worry. Photo / Ajay Berry
One of the men closest to pacing excitement machine Merlin finds himself going head to head with harness racing’s biggest modern trend in the IRT Spring Cup at Alexandra Park tonight.
Because co-trainer Scott Phelan says the millionaire stallion is the horse to beat in the 2200m dash, even though he is off a 20m handicap, the sort of disadvantage that has become a curse for punters in recent years.
As the pacing breed has gotten quicker, it has been increasingly rare for horses to win top-class races off handicaps, which is a double-edged sword.
First, a handicap means a horse is likely to settle back and few major races have leaders dawdling around these days so if the backmarkers want to move they burn enormous energy, usually three wide.
But, as may be the case with Merlin tonight, if they sit back and try to divebomb their rivals, they often run amazing sectionals but still get beaten because any horse in Merlin’s race tonight could pace their last 800m in 55 seconds against the marker pegs.
All that doesn’t mean winning off handicaps is impossible these days and backmarkers can be aided by smaller fields and staggered handicaps, meaning they aren’t giving every horse a big start.
And of course the longer the race, the more time backmarkers have to make up their disadvantage or be towed into the race.
Merlin gets none of those advantages tonight though, as he is off 20m by himself – over just 2200m and with nine highly talented rivals in front of him.
Yet he is the hot TAB favourite and the top pick for Phelan of the six he and training partner Barry Purdon have in the race.
“I still think he is the one to beat,” Phelan said.
“I know the handicap isn’t easy but that could change quickly at the start.
“There are a few inexperienced standing-start horses in here and if he [Merlin] begins quickly and there are two or three gallopers or horses who are slow then he could be sixth or something like that after 400m.
“Then he would deserve to be favourite but either way, we know he is the best horse in the race.”
That race configuration will be crucial, as if you put Merlin three back on the outer starting the last 800m, he may well justify his favouritism, especially as few of those in front of him have actually won a major open-class race.
“He is ready to go and has had two trials. He looks quite tight and while, being first-up, he will probably be driven to outsprint them I think he can,” Phelan said.
The stable also has Spring Cup defending champion Sooner The Bettor in tonight and he tends to step and run and looks the thorn in Merlin’s side, even though the scorecard between the pair is very lopsided.
“We also have Cold Chisel coming back, which is great but you’d think he would improve with a few more starts and while Jeremiah and Better Knuckle Up are both going great, they don’t have as much standing-start experience as the big two,” Phelan said.
“Duchess Megxit has come up well but is heading down south for a mares race next week so I think she will be driven for speed as well.”
Cambridge trainer Arna Donnelly has three really promising horses in the race and it wouldn’t surprise to see one of Little Spike, The Surfer or Jolimont get into the top three – but the question for most punters will be: should I back Merlin? And if not, who else?
Sooner The Bettor makes the most sense as he has been there and done that and Phelan says he can go much better than he did winning last start, when he got a touch too relaxed in front.
Tonight’s meeting also sees the $110,000 Caduceus Club Fillies Final in which impressive Canterbury juvenile Lizzie Borden comes north to take on rivals like Shezsofast and Alecto, who have been sharing the honours in the lead-up races.
Lizzie Borden’s stablemate Fugitive (Race 7, No 3) looks the one to beat in the boy’s Woodlands Sires’ Stakes.
Friday: Alexandra Park, IRT Spring Cup, first race at 5.20pm; Addington, first race at 4.46pm
Sunday: Motukarara, Banks Peninsula Trotting Cup, first race at 11.40am
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.