Horse racing: Trainer thinks bookies have got Sires’ Produce market wrong

State Of Valour (in black and gold) was only just beaten at Ellerslie two starts ago. Photo / Kenton Wright

Trainer Chad Ormsby thinks he should have the favourite in tomorrow’s $550,000 Sires’ Produce Stakes at Trentham.

Which is quite a statement to make about State Of Valour, considering he is a $10 fixed odds chance.

But dig a little deeper into Ormsby’s logic and you can make a strong case for backing the son of Sword Of State in what is the second and last Group 1 race of the juvenile season.

State Of Valour may be a maiden going into the 1400m feature but he is a Group 1-placed maiden, having finished a luckless third after coming wide in the Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie three weeks ago.

The fillies who beat him home that day, Lara Antipova and Liguria, are both not starting tomorrow and almost all the horses who contested the Karaka Millions are absent too, leaving little exposed black-type form in tomorrow’s field.

That doesn’t mean the likes of favourite Seize The Day or the unbeaten Ronaldo aren’t stars in the making but their winning form is arguably only just as good, if at all, as State Of Valour’s last-start third.

“I think our horse could be favourite,” Ormsby, respected throughout the industry as a top horseman and judge, said of State Of Valour’s chances.

“He beat Seize The Day when they raced two starts ago and was huge in the Sistema last start from a wide draw.

“So I think he is as good as as of them on Saturday and I was shocked when I saw he was paying $10.”

For juveniles like State Of Valour who are getting deeper into their campaigns, it often becomes crucial how their young bodies and joints are holding together and Ormsby says that won’t be an issue.

“He has done really well since Ellerslie and his body is holding together great.”

With such disparate form lines in tomorrow’s race, it is hard to line the main market players up, but using Seize The Day versus State Of Valour as one of the stronger form lines, it would surprise to see the latter start at $10.

Still, Te Akau has a phenomenal record in our biggest juvenile races so that, and Opie Bosson being on board, strengthens Seize The Day’s claims, while Ronaldo has looked good winning both his starts for Robbie Patterson, who is not usually considered a trainer of top juveniles.

The Roger James/Robert Wellwood pair of Excite and St Monica have also shown enough to suggest they could win without surprising, as have fillies Sweetest Thing and Summer Schemer.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.