La Crique strolls home in the Avondale Guineas.Photo / Trish Dunell
While punters may have spent the last few days looking for the winner of tomorrow's $1million Vodafone Derby, those involved in the race have spent it looking for the leader.
Because rival trainers are acutely aware that if the classic at Ellerslie turns into a dawdle they have little chance of beating superstar filly La Crique.
The Matamata filly finds herself in rarified air going into the classic, an odds-on Derby favourite after the TAB posted her $1.85 when she drew the ace for our biggest race.
Odds-on Derby favourites are incredibly rare, especially fillies, but La Crique destroyed many of her opponents tomorrow and even scared some favoured ones away with a stunning win in the Avondale Guineas two weeks ago.
She did that after working to lead then trail and when asked to quicken was way too fast for the boys, covering her last 600m in 34 seconds, a full 0.4 of a second faster than her quickest rival.
That demonstrated how potent she can be with an economical sit on a moderate speed but the extra 300m of a Derby can be blunt even the most dazzling speedster, as punters found out with Dragon Leap two seasons ago.
So a hard run Derby with La Crique forced to come wide looked the boy's best chance of undoing the only filly in the race but that became less likely when she drew the ace, raising the very real possibility of her getting the same easy trail she got in the Guineas.
In a bar room brawl of a Derby she might still find it hard to sprint quite so potently but this bar looks to have has less brawlers and more waiters who could hand the Derby to the filly on a plate.
With the horse who led in the Auckland, Waikato and Avondale Guineas in Field Of Gold withdrawn, very few of La Crique's 12 male rivals have even raced on the speed at this level, let alone led.
Their trainers are painfully aware the slower the Derby, the more scary the favourite.
"We, and I don't think anybody else, can see much speed in the race," says Tony Pike, who has trained two of the last six Derby winners.
"That is why we will probably roll forward on Tutukaka and be handy, even outside the leader because I am worried about the tempo.
"I don't think we will be in front but we have to go forward, especially with the filly drawn one. If everybody sits back she might be unbeatable."
The Baker/Forsman stable are the New Zealand experts on winning Derbys and Andrew Forsman realises they aren't going to add another to their trophy cabinet by sitting back waiting for imaginary tempo.
"It doesn't look a Derby with an obvious leader at a good tempo, even though it only takes one horse to change that on the day.
"We would ideally want all three of ours (White Noise, Regal Lion, Privileged Son) to be handy because they need a staying test and depending how they feel to their riders maybe one of them could lead.
"But they haven't had much experience at that so you wouldn't say they are natural leaders."
While the hunt for a leader may be a futile mental exercise as horses and jockeys can do unexpected things, especially in $1million races, what looks increasingly unlikely is a Derby of searing speed.
Even if that does eventuate there is also no guarantee it will dull La Crique's shine. After all, her dam won her last career start over 2400m on a bog Trentham track and her sire Vadamos is by Monsun, sire of three Melbourne Cup winners.
La Crique may be simply the best horse in the race and a truly-run Derby could even increase her dominance. Even if it turns out to be run at a good tempo we haven't seen evidence La Crique is also not the best stayer in this Derby.
But in the Avondale Guineas we saw blistering evidence she has the best sprint.
So rival trainers will be hoping one of their pack makes tomorrow a stamina test or the result should be the same.
What: New Zealand thoroughbred racing's iconic day.
Where: Ellerslie, Auckland.
When: Saturday, first race 12.23pm.
The Derby: $1million Vodafone-sponsored for three-year-old thoroughbreds.
The money: La Crique, the only filly in the Derby, is the $1.85 favourite.
Support card: $100,000 Haunui Farm Kings Plate, $90,000 McKee Family Sunline Vase, $80,000 Stella Artois Mufhasa Plate, $70,000 Go Racing Nathans Memorial.
Can you go? Surprisngly, yes. Ellerslie have limited hospitality tickets still available online.
Jamie Richards: Zeitaku R10, "Drawn well and on his way to a better grade."
Vinnie Colgan: Roccia, R1, "Drawn 4 in a nice race and will improve on last start. And deliberately staying away from tipping in the Derby."
Leith Innes: Sword Of State, R8, "Has a tough draw in a good field but won super last time out at Ellerslie."
Sam Weatherley: Glory Bound, R6, "Should take sharp improvement from last start in similar race and her work has been first class since."
Michael McNab: Babylon Berlin, R8, "She is in really well at the weights and has a great barrier."
Andrew Scott: Dark Destroyer, R4. "High class horse and while it is a good field he is drawn to get right there."
Tony Pike: Tellall, R3, "Gets in well at the weights, on solid form and die a winning turn."
Stephen Ralph: One More Time, R8, "Has real ability but needs to overcome a tough draw."
Shaune Ritchie: Swords Drawn, R2, "We are expecting him to put his hand up this week and cement his place in the Auckland Cup for next week."
Pam Gerard: Tevere, R8, "She just loves racing and given a nice trip she can really quicken. She just keeps stepping up."
Andrew Forsman: Spirit Of Baz, R2, "Racing very consistently and will appreciate the drop in weights."
Kozzi Asano: Bella Luce, R4: "Drawn reasonably well and was good against a nice bunch of horses here last start."
John Wheeler: Beaudz Well, R2: "He is fit and well and had no luck last week. Actually, both mine I am bringing north are ready to go.