"I think she is getting better so she will take some catching."
Sword Of State has only been beaten once in New Zealand and was stunning beating subsequent huge winner Imperatriz on Karaka Million night, albeit in a slower time than Babylon Berlin recorded over 1200m two hours later.
From barrier 9 he faces having to sit outside the mare, or handy, and will need to be clearly superior to win. "He worked very well on Thursday morning and we couldn't be happier with where he is at," says trainer Jamie Richards.
The best way to line them up is may be through Sword Of State's stablemates Entriviere and Festivity, who have both taken on Babylon Berlin in Ellerslie 1200m in the past two months.
Entriviere was clearly too good for Babylon Berlin in the Railway but Festivity couldn't catch her in the Concorde, so where does Sword Of State sit compared with those two?
Considering his form against the best sprinting three-year-olds in Australia and his last-start win over Imperatriz, Sword Of State is probably closer to Entriviere than Festivity so deserves to be favourite but the winner may even be decided by something as small as which lane is faster by that stage of the meeting.
While Richards realises Sword Of State must do something special to win, he goes into two of tomorrow's other black type races confident.
He rates On The Bubbles the better of his two chances in a spicy Mufhasa Stakes but the weight scale gives that 1400m a very open feel while he has three good fillies in the Sunline Vase, one with a big question mark.
Belle En Rouge is the most proven of his trio over Outlet and Invincibeel but she didn't appear to stay over 2000m last time so will need to be more prominent at the end of 2100m tomorrow to continue down the Oaks path.
"I think she can be as she is a very good filly and I think last time wasn't run to suit her but Outfit is also a good filly who is getting better and she would be just as good a chance."