"I was going to go to the trials this week but the fields there didn't really offer much and the sprint distance won't hurt him even if he is a run short.
"But with us being drawn the outside and the mile start on a bend I think we have to go back at the start and come with one run and that is going to make it very hard to beat whoever leads.
"So while I am happy with the horse I really don't see how he can win."
That isn't to say Oscar Bonavena's is a lost cause tonight because he did come from near last to win the NZ Free-For-All last season and if there is any pressure in the small field he could even get dragged into the one-one but Todd's words will be enough to put punters off taking any short odds.
That could see another outstanding trotter Majestic Man start favourite in the expectation he could lead, with some of the best performances of his career over sprint trips.
Todd has Terry and Cheezel in tonight's pacing feature the National Handicap, the first lead-up race to this year's New Zealand Cup.
"Terry won well last start but this is a stronger field and a lot will depend on luck in the running.
"But it should give us a good idea of where we stand heading into the next round of open class races and maybe even on to the Cup."
