Add in Japanese stayer Warp Speed, born on Valentine’s Day but by no means their racing sweetheart, and the three New Zealanders in the Cup today face an enormous task.
Those three, Sharp N Smart, Positivity and Trust In You, are good to very good horses but even a top five finish would realistically be considered a victory for any of the trio because they are 80-1 or higher in today’s Cup for a reason.
Since the injection of European staying blood into the Melbourne Cup around 30 years ago, the race now often feels beyond New Zealand’s grasp most years.
The Europeans takes breeding stayers (horses that race at 2400m or further) very seriously and have been trying to perfect it since the Epsom Derby was first run in 1780.
To put it another way, they have been breeding Melbourne Cup-type horses for about 100 years longer than there has been a Melbourne Cup.
New Zealand still breeds wonderful stayers but we sell plenty of them early in their careers as rich Australians have an unquenchable first to get their hands on the Cup and with the Australian breeding industry based on speed and quick returns, they have set themselves up to fail in their own greatest race.
So if you put down your flag and pick up you phone to bet (tab.co.nz or new betting site betcha) on today’s Cup the best way to increase your chances of winning is finding the best European.
But which one?
There is no doubt Vauban is the best performed of them, chasing home an Irish staying champion in Kyprios in the Irish St Leger last start and if he brings that form today he will probably win.
The problem is Vauban didn’t bring that form to this race last year, when he still carried his European autumn coat into the parade ring and ran accordingly.
He is trained by a master in Willie Mullins, who has learned from his mistakes and sent Vauban out on the earlier of the two planes that bring the UK horses down this year.
That gave him more time to settle in and hasn’t trained the ears off Vauban like he did in a sparkling track gallop last year.
But for all Vauban’s class the new, modern recipe to win the Melbourne Cup seems to be a goodish but not great European stayer who therefore doesn’t have to carry too much weight who has acclimatised to Australia, with its pesky flies and heat.
The best two examples of that in today’s Cup are Onesmoothoperator and Sea King.
They bolted away with the Geelong and Bendigo Cups respectively the last two Wednesdays, have light weights and great jockeys.
You could make a case for backing them both to double your chances but halve your odds.
Their form from through races like the Ebor at York, which is the closest thing England has to the Melbourne Cup, in terms of racing style and class, is almost identical.
Pushed to tip one over the other Onesmoothoperator goes on top as he was spectacular at Geelong and he has the stride of a Melbourne Cup winner, lowering his body when he gets serious, his stride lengthening without the wasted energy of over-reaching.
The chances of course don’t end there.
Vauban’s stablemate Absurde is tough, while other winning chances Buckaroo, Land Legend, Okita Soushi or Interpretation can all win and are these days trained in Australia.
But don’t be fooled, they all carry the Eng, Ire or Fr suffix to confirm they were born on the other side of the equator.
The side that tends to win the Melbourne Cup these days.
Michael Guerin’s Cup tips
1: ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
2: SEA KING
3: VAUBAN
4: ABSURDE
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
