New Zealand's embattled Melbourne Cup team will be hoping for some encouraging news from the Racing Victoria handicapper this morning.
Because there wasn't much to raise their spirits over the weekend.
The Kiwi pair of Ocean Billy (ninth) and The Chosen One in 14th were well beaten behind stunning winnerIncentivise in the A$5million Caulfield Cup on Saturday, although Ocean Billy did at least earn A$120,000 for clawing his way into the top 10 on the unsuitable wet track.
They both head to the Melbourne Cup at Flemington in 15 days' time, and any hopes they had that the Incentivise they meet that day may be dulled by a surprise tilt at this Saturday's Cox Plate appear to be fading fast.
Trainer Peter Moody says Saturday's race took the sting out of Incentivise so he is almost certain not to go to the Cox Plate, for which he was third favourite after his Caulfield demolition job, the win made even more remarkable because he started from the outside gate.
If Incentivise had gone to the Cox Plate it would have added another potentially tough race for him 10 days out from the Melbourne Cup, but by bypassing it Moody gives himself plenty of time to hone the gelding for the iconic Flemington feature.
The way Incentivise won on Saturday, and with the European raiders soon to join the fray for the Melbourne Cup, that won't do a lot for the confidence of trainers of beaten runners on Saturday.
However, Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter might have some good news for them on Monday morning.
Carpenter has to re-handicap Incentivise for Saturday's win so his 55.5kgs allotted weight for the Melbourne Cup will become at least 57kgs, with a 1.5kgs re-handicap and quite possibly more.
As wondrous as Incentivise was at Caulfield, if he starts getting to 57.5kgs or joins defending Cup hero Twilight Payment on the 58kgs topweight for Flemington then Incentivise futures punters will start to feel nervous.
While the Kiwis are now rated longshot hopes at best for the Melbourne Cup, both would seem to be better suited by a drier track at Flemington. And Ocean Billy did enough on his Australian debut to suggest a big payday isn't beyond him there at some stage.
Brett Prebble wins the A$5million Caulfield Cup on Incentivise in Melbourne on Saturday. Photo / Vince Caliguiri
Incentivise missing the Cox Plate can only be good news for the New Zealand-trained pair heading there in Probabeel and Callsign Mav.
The latter had his first look at The Valley during a public trackwork session on Saturday morning and has jockey Luke Nolan booked for Saturday's weight-for-age championship. It also means Brett Prebble, who rode Incentivise, won't have to choose between him and Probabeel, who he also rode to win the A$1million Might And Power at Caulfield nine days ago.
That win convinced Probabeel's team to tackle the Cox Plate again, with the only likely impediment to that plan being if it rains in Melbourne and the track gets to a slow 7 or worse.
If Probabeel starts in the Cox Plate she will miss the A$1million Empire Rose the following Saturday, now a likely target for stablemates Amarelinha and Kahma Lass.
