Blinkers helped Tuxedo win the Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic in January. Photo / Kenton Wright
In weight-for-age racing, timing can be everything and that may never be more true than in tomorrow’s $600,000 Sport Nation Ōtaki-Māori Classic at Ellerslie.
The 1600m Group 1 race has been full of punting trapdoors in the last fortnight, with first Legarto and then First Five pulling out – then all the favourites drew wide.
So you can consider the spanner well and truly in the works.
If either Pier or Waitak drew well, they could have dominated this race, but they didn’t.
If El Vencedor was in the same form as this time last year, he’d successfully defend his title. But he isn’t.
And if the mares Provence or Qali Al Farrasha reached their 2025 peaks, they could win. But there are few indications that is going to happen.
Which brings us back to timing, which co-trainer Shaune Ritchie hopes Tuxedo has on his side.
Tuxedo tried to play with some of these Group 1 rock and rollers in the spring and wasn’t good enough – but Ritchie says that has helped the 4-year-old grow into a man.
“He went in those Group 1s in the spring and we knew we couldn’t win them but they have hardened him up,” Ritchie told the Herald.
“He has come back a better horse, whereas I think some of our proven Group 1 horses, as great as they are, probably aren’t as good as six or 12 months ago.
“Whether our horse is all the way up to them now, I don’t know, but I do think he is closer.
“That is why I think, after his win in the Aotearoa Classic last start, he can go close to winning on Saturday.
“Maybe one of those proven Group 1 horses will be too good for him and maybe in six more months, we will be winning races like this.”
Tuxedo has a bit on his side: a renewed concentration because of blinkers, a rejuvenated and hungry Opie Bosson aboard and the opportunity to settle closer to likely leader El Vencedor than the other favourites.
If El Vencedor turns up happy and ambitious, he could wind back the clock, while Pier would be a $3 favourite, had he drawn barriers 2 to 5, but now his comeback jockey Michael McNab while need to produce the perfect ride to cap the perfect comeback.
Waitak has had a tricky summer after a dazzling spring but he is so good at his best, he can win and really maybe should. But he has to be a percentage point or two below peak fitness, having not raced in two months.
That might still be good enough.
Sterling Express has been just about our most consistent weight-for-age horse all season and sits in a pack, alongside Jaarffi and Provence, of horses who could win or finish fifth without either thing surprising.
Put simply, in a race of form and fitness fluctuations, timing may be the deciding factor.
Later in the day’s other Group 1, the $1 million Al Basti Equiworld Dubai New Zealand Oaks, Ritchie and training partner Colm Murray realise they have a mountain to climb with Tajana.
The fillies staying ranks have undergone a wild summer surge with the emergence of Ohope Wins, Single Red, Autumn Glory and Ultimate Habit, all of whom look at least as good a chances, if not better, than one-time Oaks favourite Tajana.
“It has turned into a really strong Oaks and we also have a hard draw so it is going to test her,” Ritchie said.
“With her first time in blinkers, we can’t risk hunting her out of the gate so she will have to settle and hope the race unfolds her way.
“And even if it does, we will be flat beating Ohope Wins.”
The stable also takes former Auckland Cup winner Mahrajaan and Nereus to a very even Avondale Cup, a race where the emerging stayer like The Precursor, Kiwi Skyhawk and Sinhaman take on warriors with a lot more miles on their dials.
Ritchie said Mahrajaan is a dead-set 3200m horse whose chance will come in the Auckland Cup “but Nereus comes out of the Herbie Dyke at Te Rapa and he could be an each-way chance”.
The Avondale Cup looks set to reward punters who find the winner with Aussie newcomer Brayden Star the $4.80 favourite, but with 19 of the 22 acceptors in double figures.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.