So the TAB bookies have her favourite or equal favourite for this stunning list:
- $4 equal favourite for Sistema Railway at Ellerslie on January 24.
- $2.20 favourite for NZB Karaka Millions 3-Y-O at Ellerslie, also on January 24
- $5 favourite for the Al Basti Equiworld New Zealand Oaks at Ellerslie on February 21
- $8 favourite for the Trackside New Zealand Derby at Ellerslie on March 7
- $2.50 favourite for the NZB Kiwi at Ellerslie, also on March 7.
Two of those great races will be an absolute “no” with the New Zealand Oaks, moved from Trentham to Ellerslie, and the Derby not on Well Written’s agenda because Marsh is adamant her biggest target in New Zealand for the remainder of the season is the NZB Kiwi.
It is the same day as the Derby so Well Written can’t run in both and she obviously won’t step up to 2400m for the Oaks and then try dropping back to 1500m for the NZB Kiwi slot race two weeks later.
And while Well Written is favourite or equal favourite for both the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old and the Sistema Railway on the huge Karaka Millions night on January 24, Marsh admits she may not run in either.
“We are getting further and further away from her starting in the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old,” he told the Herald.
“She would need to race before it and we don’t think racing at 1600m then, with a lead-up race in January also needed, is the best way to get her to the NZB Kiwi, which is very much our main aim.
“So the Sistema Railway that same night [January 24] is an option but the more we have thought about [it], so too is the Almanzor Trophy.
“They are both 1200m and the Almanzor will obviously not be as strong as the Railway, which we would probably have to go into without a race against the best older sprinters.”
The $250,000 Cambridge Stud Almanzor Trophy would appear the perfect race, should Marsh want a late January sprint for Well Written, being at Ellerslie, where her ultimate aim, the NZB Kiwi, will be held – but up against her own age.
It would also be minus many of the best of her crop, because they could be in the $1.5 million Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old the same night instead.
“So working back from the NZB Kiwi, a 1200m race that night at Ellerslie looks ideal but the Almanzor Trophy is very much an option instead of the Railway.”
That will be music to the ears of the trainers of potential rivals in both the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old and the Sistema Railway but also to Ellerslie officials, who now look likely to still get Well Written to their two biggest meetings of the season, the Karaka Millions and the NZB Kiwi.
The Almanzor Trophy, formerly known as the Mr Tiz Trophy, is no stranger to attracting New Zealand’s most exciting horses, with Crocetti, Sword Of State, Catalyst and Melody Belle among its recent winners, with Sword Of State beating Imperatriz and Bonny Lass in a star-studded 2022 running.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.