Heavy conditions test for the hardy

Keep your bets restricted today, not in volume, but in numbers.

Rain yet again has made punting difficult at both Ellerslie and Trentham, although several runners still loom large at both venues.

Cambridge trainer Ralph Manning, recovering from a hip replacement last Tuesday week, has cheered every raindrop that fell in Wellington from Thursday night. Manning knows that in Magnetism he has a better horse than the one that finished 13th in Xcellent's Kelt Capital Stakes last start.

The Hastings track was bordering on being hard that day and Magnetism has shown he is better with a little yield. He'll get more than a little of that at Trentham today, but that won't stop him being a live hope in the $100,000 group one Captain Cook Stakes.

"He's an improved horse," said Manning. The best guide here is Magnetism's third behind Miss Potential in the Stoney Bridge Stakes at Hastings.

Trainer Mark Walker does not expect a rain-affected track to eliminate the chances of Amazing One (No2, R2). This bloke, recently back from Hong King, is the real deal. Mud generally negates class, but Amazing One has so much of it he only has to handle the conditions reasonably to win.

His stablemates, 2-year-old Don Garcia and Guineas favourite Darci Brahma will probably win, but are not worth taking the risk on at the prices they'll be showing. Mark Walker believes that whether or not Don Garcia appreciates the footing, he'll be strong enough to get through it. And, anyway, juveniles generally cope with most conditions.

If Twinkling runs in Race 3 she will take plenty of stopping. That Soliloquy Stakes win at Ellerslie was remarkable for the amount of ground the Cambridge filly had to cover coming around the leaders on the home bend. With Pulcinella scratched yesterday and Seachange better on firmer footing, Twinkling looks close enough to a good thing with 3kg off her back.

Last night it hadn't been decided whether Dunmore Boy would run in Race 7 or Race 10. He has 57kg in Race 7, but looks to have a bit on the others now the track has eased. The last time he struck rain-affected footing it took Rutland Lass to beat him. The field is much stronger in Race 10, but it's difficult to believe the conditions will suit the likes of Snazzy (No9) or The Raj (No2). Dunmore Boy could be good each-way value if he lines up in the last.

With 58kg and all, Danz Star (No1, R6) is going to be hard to beat at Ellerslie. He's all class, has the frame to manage the big weight and loves rain-affected footing. None of the others have all of that. Sing In The Sun (No2) is getting closer.

Turnip McKenzie (No11, R2) has had plenty of time to recover from a hard race when narrowly beaten at Matamata last start. The inside, where he will end up from the No 3 barrier, will should be fine early on. Beersheba Knight (No9) suggests he won't be long in maiden class.

If Lance O'Sullivan decides to let Temple Hills (No3, R3) run despite the conditions he will still start favourite. He has untapped potential and has only to get half decent purchase to give this field all it needs.

You have to believe the weather will yet again decide whether class sprinter Devoted (No4, R4) takes his place, or if he is competitive if he does. There is no way the footing is going to be ideal for him and he is a risky proposition, yet you wouldn't fall over if his class carried him through. If the conditions get really rugged don't discount Ben Sparta (No1). He's not as well off with 58kg in a handicap here as he was with the same weight under weight-for-age conditions at Rotorua last week, but there are no apprentice claims, which will help. The 1200m is way short of his best, but he is improved from last week and if they are struggling in the ground he can get over the top of them.

Apprentice allowances will be important at Ellerslie today. The 3kg Chad Ormsby takes off Focal Point (No2, R7) could be the winning of the race. The question is whether she is fit enough in her first start since May, but she could be worth the risk because she is definitely one to follow. She has won two of three starts in the soft. Madamvizelle (No5) is a must for multiple bets and can win.

Kabikushi Kabigum (No4, R9) is no champ, but he's rugged, consistent and simply loves the type of footing he's going to strike today. Some wet tracks become too testing for some horses - you've yet to see one that he cant keep going in. El Perez (No1) and That's Tops (No3) are better horses, but Kabikushi Kabigum is a great each-way bet.