Grey day predicted at Flemington ... on and off the track

Martina Ligas rides leading Melbourne Cup contender Presage Nocturne during early morning trackwork at the Werribee yesterday. Photo/ AFP

MICHAEL GUERIN’S CUP PICKS

1: PRESAGE NOCTURNE (No.6)

2: HALF YOURS (No.14)

3: FURTHUR (No.17)

4: VALIANT KING (No.24)

One of the silliest superstitions in horse racing could actually be the key to making money in today’s A$10 million ($11.45m) Melbourne Cup.

Racing is laced with totally inane - yet popular - sayings that punters will cling to in moments of desperation.

They range from the totally ridiculous - like four white feet means a horse is fast (it doesn’t) to wearing green on a racetrack is bad luck (it isn’t, but why tempt fate?).

One of the most popular and totally nonsensical of racing’s sayings is to always back grey horses on wet tracks.

That one has been around for a century, probably first coined by some Irish horse breeder in a pub trying to sell a grey horse to another guy in the pub while it was raining outside.

Just to be totally clear: there is no evidence of any sort that grey horses prefer wet tracks.

It is racing’s version of people telling you it is bad luck to take bananas on a boat.

Total nonsense of course, although there were bananas on the Titanic, so, maybe don’t tempt fate with that one either.

But as silly as the ‘greys in the wet’ superstition is, purely by chance today it might prove the winning Cup formula.

It was raining and cold in Melbourne on Monday and Flemington will start today a Soft 6 with more rain forecast.

If that falls during the meeting then the track could become a very acquired taste, especially over the 3200m of the Cup in which any percentage point of a disadvantage is multiplied.

But if the track is soft or even nearing the heavy range, a handful of horses will be suited. And yes, you guessed it, three of them are grey.

The best bet possibly, regardless of the footing, is French horse Presage Nocturne but his hopes improve on a soft track and he is one of the few who will handle a heavy track.

He is striking and strong and was excellent when fourth in the Caulfield Cup last start, which was really only a fitness builder for today.

Presage Nocturne has the stride of a Melbourne Cup winner, efficient but long, and he looks perfect for Flemington.

He has yet to win at Group 1 or 2 level so his 55.5kg weight is no luxury but he has form out of the Prix Kergolay, the French race that previous Melbourne Cup winners Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014) came through.

Presage Nocturne is no good thing but he has a lot more ticks next to his name than most in today’s Cup and, just as importantly, almost no negatives -so at $9 he is a smart each way bet.

A different shade of grey is another Northern Hemisphere galloper in Furthur, who looks one of the best longshots in the race.

To be ridden by ex-pat Kiwi jockey Mick Dee, he is only a 3-year-old but a European 3-year-old getting into the Cup with a light weight has worked well and he is one for those punters who want bang for their buck.

Also grey and carrying a light weight is Valiant King, trained by Kiwi genius Chris Waller.

He has only won two races but was third in the Caulfield Cup, has a Cup-winning jockey in Jye McNeil, and while not a mud lover, he has won on soft and been placed on a heavy track.

Colour aside, there are several other horses you can make a case for, particularly if Flemington does dry out more than expected, with the most obvious being Half Yours.

He comes into today’s Cup remarkably well off at the weights as a last-start Caulfield Cup winner carrying just 53kg, has weight-for-age form and a superb female jockey in Jamie Melham, looking to become only the second woman to ride the Melbourne Cup winner.

Half Yours sits alongside Presage Nocturne as the best chance in the race.

Topweight Al Riffa is a class Irish galloper but carrying 59kg, which might be a tad too much, while Buckaroo’s chances will improve if the track dries out for the Auckland punter who has him going for a $732,000 collect if he just runs top three.

Absurde would prefer more rain and is an 8-year-old, usually too old to win the Cup, but he is trained by Irish wizard Willie Mullins, fresh from winning a Breeders Cup in California on Sunday with a hurdler, so almost nothing is beyond him.

Meydaan gets our World Champion jockey James McDonald, which has to help, while River Of Stars is another of the blow-out hopes if the track get deep.

But don’t be surprised if it is a grey day, on and off the track, in Melbourne.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.