Return To Conquer is very good but also seems to lose concentration or do things a little too easily sometimes. Blinkers on for the Group 1 should help that, with He Who Dares the big improver.
Suggested bet: Return To Conquer (1) to win.
Race 5, HKJC World Pool NZ Breeders: Hard to find a reason why Legarto won’t win, especially at weight-for-age. She is second-up but looked sharp when galloping between races on Saturday and her barrier manners have improved. Konasana dropping out of a open w-f-a Group 1 is the place value.
Suggested bet: Legarto (1) to win and even a same-race multi Legarto win/Konasana place ($3.75).
Race 6, Bonecrusher NZ Stakes: El Vencedor is in the zone and will get the run he wants but this race may come down to pressure. If there is none, he looks too hard to catch but, if he has to move earlier, Orchestral will close hard late.
Suggested bet: Looks to have two winning chances so back Orchestral (7) at $4 to win and cover on her Top2 at $1.95.
Race 7, Barfoot And Thompson Auckland Cup: Hard to suggest a $3.60 favourite makes sense in a capacity 3200m handicap but Tajanis looks beautifully placed here with 53kg in a Cup with a bit of a tail. If he doesn’t win, it is a case of pick your own among the 53-54kg weight carriers.
Sugested bet: Tajanis (11) to win or Sailor Jack (9) a place at $5.50.
Race 8, NZB Kiwi: A wonderful mixture of form but none of it as strong as Evaporate. One of only two horses in the race without a win in his last four starts, but that is because those starts have been at a much higher level than he meets today. Strong enough to be put into the race from barrier 10.
With the big field, you still want to save on something with speed so choose out of Perfumist or Sethito, while Damask Rose or Checkmate could slingshot them late.
Suggested bet: Evaporate (1) to win; save on Perfumist (7) each way.
Race 9, Trackside NZ Derby: A lot of moving parts to the classic this year, especially with Willydoit’s expensive failure last start. He can bounce back but is still short in the market for a horse coming off a 10th.
The two horses peaking at the right time are Tuxedo and Oceana Dream, both from stables with real Derby pedigrees. Tuxedo will need tempo to swoop from barrier 16 but Oceana Dream looks set to cover no ground and the gaps will come.
Suggested bet: Oceana Dream (5) to win, smaller cover bet on Tuxedo (2).
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still at school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
