He did something similar twice at Group 1 level earlier this year after also downing Legarto with those tactics in the Bonecrusher NZ Stakes back in March 2024.
But those wins were in February and March whereas the pre-Christmas version of El Vencedor races like a V8 with the wrong petrol in the tank.
Last spring, El Vencedor could barely get warm and while he has been okay this campaign he has still finished unplaced in two runs.
These are facts trainer Stephen Marsh doesn’t hide from.
“He has only won one race at the start of a season, and by that I mean before November, in his life and that was his maiden,” Marsh admits.
“I think the main reasons are he is such a big, round horse the more racing he has the better he gets.
“Once we get him wound up he holds his form very well. I think he is getting close but I’ll be honest, I don’t think he is 100% there yet.
“Like a lot of horses, the wet weather this spring hasn’t helped, either with the tracks or the fact his coat hasn’t really come through [turned] yet.
“We are really happy with him and think he can win but his history would suggest he is going to be even better deeper into the campaign.”
Marsh does believe a luckless trip to Hong Kong in April could be one forgotten factor in helping El Vencedor overcome his spring woes tomorrow.
“While not much went right up in Hong Kong it means he wasn’t out spelling for as long this time so hopefully he doesn’t take as long to come up.”
El Vencedor is suited by the likely shape of the Livamol as he should roll forward and lead, with only bolter Khan Hunter looking likely to give him any grief.
“If he can get rolling and get things his way he will be hard to beat because his work has been good.”
So don’t be surprised if El Vencedor adds another huge Ellerslie trophy to his collection tomorrow but it also won’t shock anybody if he produces his best run this campaign so far but is divebombed in the last 100m.
There are no shortage of rivals with the class and racing style to swoop past him later, headed by the in-form Waitak, Proisir Plate winner Quintessa and perhaps even the class horse of the field in Legarto.
Ladies Man is the horse who would seemingly most enjoy a hard-run 2040m.
In the race before the Livamol, Marsh has super impressive last-start winner Tardelli lining up in a race sponsored by one of his owners Lib Petagna.
“He has a good horse’s weight and a wide draw so it won’t be easy but everybody saw what he did last start,” says Marsh.
His smart three-year-old from last season, Kiwi Skyhawk, returns in a stacked final race and while he can win it will be a capacity field of 18 runners so luck will play a crucial role, as it will in so many races tomorrow.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
