“Our filly had to sprint a few times but Treacherous Baby worked hard too and beat us.
“She has definitely closed the gap and that has surprised us because we know how good our filly is.”
Perceptions have changed so much that Treacherous Baby opened as the $1.80 favourite for tonight’s Oaks with Duchess Megxit at $5.50 and while they won’t start that far apart, the disparity is enticing form punters.
If Treacherous Baby can work straight to the lead and gain a clear advantage from her better draw then she is the logical choice but it may not be that simple, particularly with Victoria Oaks winner Coastal Babe drawn inside her.
Coastal Babe’s connections were keen for driver Matty White to stay in front against the boys in the $500,000 Velocity last start and while that didn’t pay off they might be keen on the same tactics again in tonight’s weaker field.
If Coastal Babe does lead then racing luck comes into play for Treacherous Baby and she could be vulnerable to the moves of others.
“We’d like to see some speed on up front and then come into the race later,” says Phelan.
“But we know she [Duchess Megxit] is well and if she has to come sit parked later in the race she can still go close no matter who is in front.”
The Oaks is one of five Group 1s on tonight’s Addington card. There is another Oaks, for trotters, which features one of the hottest favourites in New Zealand history with Keayang Zahara opening at $1.04 but has moved to $1.03 after being woven into almost all multi-bets.
The Victorian sensation should win by lengths in a race where Empire City’s place price looks like the best punting option.
On a night for multi-punters, the next two most logical anchors are Meant To Be (race 1) and Marketplace (race 6) while many will add Chase A Dream (race 4) even though he was a length below his best when second last start.
Habibti Pat should win Race 2 but Ocean Eyes looks place value at $2.15, while Stella Rouge’s draw advantage could be enough to see her exact revenge over Captains Mistress in the $100,000 juvenile fillies pace.
The five questions of the harness racing weekend
1: Will the favourites win all five Group 1s at Addington?
Probably. Keayang Zahara, Marketplace and Meant To Be should all win but the two in more doubt are Habibti Pat and Treacherous Baby.
If the latter two both run to the front without pressure they should win but the Pacing Oaks, in particular, may not be so simple.
2: Is Chase A Dream still our best 3-year-old pacer?
We find out tonight. He is being talked up as an Auckland Cup chance and with arch-rival Cold Chisel sidelined he holds top dog status. But if he gets beaten in race 4 at Addington tonight we are facing a vacant belt situation in the class.
3: Are the Metro Series heats and finals at Alexandra Park working?
It appears so. The two finals tonight don’t have any stars but they are even and racing like with like.
Along with other programming initiatives, they have helped reduce the number of odds-on favourites at The Park, with only one in nine races tonight.
4: Does Tact McLeod’s late entry make the Interdoms any more interesting to Kiwis?
A little. The series kicks off at Newcastle in NSW tonight with Tact McLeod the only Kiwi rep.
He races at 10.10pm (NZ time), which is plenty late for most punters but might mean harness fans stay tuned in for 10 more minutes after the last at Addington.
5: Which favourite has the better chance at Methven on Sunday: Better Eclipse or Oscar Bonavena?
Tricky question because Better Eclipse has several rivals who could beat him while Oscar probably only has one in Muscle Mountain.
But if Better Eclipse races up to his best he should win while even at his best Oscar might struggle to catch Muscle Mountain if he crosses him at the start.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
