The Otaki track has been rated a Soft 6 all week but will dry to get into the 4-5 range if there isn’t rain.
That would be a clear advantage to Desert Lightning who is naturally fast, has barrier 1 and if the track is in the good range should be slick.
But there was rain forecast overnight and again for this morning and the Group 1 isn’t until 5.15pm so that gives any rain that is going to turn up an awful lot of Saturday to change things.
Desert Lightning has actually won on a slow track but is far more potent on a good surface and if the rain comes it may not only suit others like Puntura and Aegon but it could reduce or even erase the advantage of barrier 1.
Many local trainers will tell you Otaki when it rains becomes a swoopers track or at least advantangeous to those able to get to the middle ground in the home straight.
So while Desert Lightning may seem value at $2.50 this morning, smart punters are advised to wait.
If he can win he is likely to head to the AUS$4 million All Star Mile at Caulfield on March 16.
Otaki host an array of good races so the weather will be crucial with that late start but it shouldn’t be as big a factor at Matamata, the other northern thoroughbred meeting that splits the top jockey’s ranks today.
While Move To Strike has been heavily backed in the male two-year-old race the $150,000 J Swap Matamata Breeders appears to have far more winning chances with Alabama Lass, Captured By Love and Archaic Smile all high-class fillies.
The start could ultimately decide the race because if Alabama Lass leads from the ace she probably isn’t going to need to go any faster for the extra 100m today then when she smashed the clock over 1100m winning by nine-and-a-half lengths on debut.
But if she is crossed by any of her rivals it could open the race up as luck often plays a part in juvenile racing but Alabama Lass did win both her trials coming from behind other horses so she might have the all-round game.
Still, she will need it as besting unbeaten Te Akau juvenile fillies like Captured By Love on their home track with Opie Bosson aboard takes some doing.
In Australia, Te Akau have both Campionessa (R6, 5.05pm) and Skew Wiff (R9, 6.55pm) racing with the former a $3 favourite.
The Caulfield meeting has been hit by drama before it even starts with one of the favourite Bodyguard scratched by club vets after not passing the pre-race inspections for the Blue Diamond, a decision that could ultimately cost his connections over A$10million.
** Auckland Thoroughbred Racing will have a slot in the NZB Kiwi after taking up the offer, albeit at $450,000 cost, from NZTR to have their own slot in the new Ellerslie slot race.
They join Waikato Thoroughbred Racing as two of the districts who have secured slots which they can either use for horses who win lead-up races at their tracks or negotiate with owners like any normal slot holder to ascertain what horse races in it.
The first NZB Kiwi, the new slot race for three-year-olds over 1500m, will be run at Ellerslie in March next year.
At least nine other slots will be auctioned at a special function at Karaka on Tuedsay night, coinciding with the NZ Derby draw.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
