Kiwis Merlin and Don’t Stop Dreaming hope to capitalise if the Australians tire each other out.
Local trainers Barry Purdon and Hayden Cullen see opportunities for a late surge in the race.
The biggest local players in tomorrow night’s $1 million Race by Betcha are hoping a bare-knuckle brawl between two Aussies ends with a Kiwi being the last man standing.
The Australian pair of Don Hugo and Leap To Fame dominate the market for the 2200m mobileslot race, as they should, being winners of the last two Inter Dominions and Miracle Miles.
They arrive in New Zealand, both for their debuts here, at a time of unprecedented superiority by the Australians over the locals, with Swayzee winning the last two New Zealand Cups and Bettor Eclipse the Auckland Cup last year.
With Don Hugo having drawn barrier two tomorrow night and Leap To Fame not so well-placed at barrier seven (after the emergency comes out) but still certain to roll forward, smart money would be on the Australians being leader and parked out a lap from home on the 1000m track.
Then the Kiwis have to hope the Aussies, particularly Grant Dixon driving Leap To Fame, empty the tank.
Don Hugo was too slick for Leap To Fame under similar circumstances in the Miracle Mile a month ago and Dixon admits he might have been better applying more mid-race pressure, especially as Leap To Fame was coming back at Don Hugo hard again at the line.
If Dixon tries to take the sprint out of Don Hugo, and that is a lot of sprint, then both could be left vulnerable to a high-class rival with fresh legs and full lungs.
Best-placed to fill that role could be Merlin or Don’t Stop Dreaming, who were part of a quinella in an easier version of this race last year.
Don't Stop Dreaming (outer) winning at Alexandra Park last start. Photo / HRNZ
On that occasion Merlin worked forward from barrier five (he starts from six tomorrow), sat parked, took the one-one sit and roared past Don’t Stop Dreaming late.
Co-trainer Barry Purdon suggests a similar run on Friday would be ideal, working forward early to sit on the back of Leap To Fame if and when he ends up parked.
The only problem is, Merlin would then have to have run past both Don Hugo and Leap To Fame, who are better than the rivals he ran past last year.
“It will be up to Zac [Butcher, driver], but I’d see that as his best chance of winning,” says Purdon, who with Scott Phelan also has Duchess Megxit in the race and drawn to trail.
If the two up front really undo themselves then Merlin could defend his title, and another trainer who wouldn’t mind that script being written but with a different final chapter is Hayden Cullen.
He and wife Amanda have recently taken over training Don’t Stop Dreaming after an ownership dispute, and last year’s runner-up was dazzling winning at Alexandra Park last start.
After studying the draws and modus operandi of the main players, Cullen can see his charge being on the back of Merlin or less like Leap To Fame and waiting to swoop.
“I think that is how he is best placed, following a hot speed and launching late,” says Cullen.
“I am not saying it will be easy to do but it is still his best chance.
“He is working well. His feet, which have sometimes troubled him in the past, are good, so he will race well.”
The pair may not be the only local winning chances, with Republican Party (Auckland Cup) and Chase A Dream (just last week in the Flying Mile) having shown they can boom home under the right circumstances.
But they both face being further back in the field with four great horses between them and the winner’s circle.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
