She hit the line hard over 1400m in the Tarzino at Hastings on September 7 and now has the advantage of racing on her home track as well as the long Matamata back straight giving her 700m to find a position from her wide draw.
“The race being here has to help her,” says Walker.
“Most horses race better on their home tracks and obviously she doesn’t have to travel.
“She looks pretty spot on to me and I think she is ready to go a big race but I’d love that rain which is forecast to stay away.
“It is not that she can’t handle it but some others might handle a wet track better than her and have their chances improved.”
Plenty of trainers spent yesterday checking the rain radar as nothing will change track conditions quicker than rain on the day, particularly during the meeting when the horses can chew up a wet surface.
The forecast suggests rain later in the afternoon and if it arrives at least an hour or two before the Arrowfield at 3.52pm the proven wet trackers may get enough relief to threaten and the whole complexion of the race could change.
Skew Wiff has a raft of positives and a wet track wouldn’t be a disaster as she has won on heavy and soft, it might just bring her back to some of her rivals.
Almost as important might be the early pressure in the race with El Vencedor having looked the likely leader from the tricky Hastings 1600m point with Puntura forced to work hard to get to him.
But with such a long run down the back straight now the race has been moved it should allow Puntura, and anybody else who wants to chance their arm, to get handy and that could create more natural tempo.
That would suit swoopers like Malt Time so if you are punting today patience and an eye on the weather/track will be crucial to improving your percentages.
While the venue and weather could impact the result of the Arrowfield it has almost certainly already changed today’s $175,000 Hawkes Bay Guineas, which unlike the Arrowfield was re-drawn.
That redraw means favourite Captured By Love starts from barrier 1 rather than wide as she was going to had the race been run last Saturday.
On the flip side both Poetic Champion and Super Photon have copped the two widest draws and while they have a long run from the 1400m to get handy, Captured By Love’s chances of beating them must have improved with the change.
“She is another we will be watching the weather with as she can win on a wet track but we’d prefer it wasn’t wet for her,” says Walker.
Earlier in the card Campionessa is the big ticket addition to the meeting as she wasn’t in the open sprint (Race 2) field at Hastings but will start today against Master Fay and Wild Night today if the rain stays away.
“She needs a race to be ready for the Livamol next week and we’d prefer it to be 1600m on Saturday but it looks like it is going to rain by then so we might have to take our chances at the 1300m here,” explained Walker.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
