Aotearower has the right credentials to steer us to a profitable Boxing Day in race 6 at Ellerslie this afternoon.
The improving mare is part owned by rowers Hamish Bond, Eric Murray Mahe Drysdale, Nathan Cohen and Joseph Sullivan and could not have been more impressive than when finishing third in a fast-run 1400m at Te Rapa last start. She stormed home late and will appreciate the step up to 1600m today.
You won't get rich off it, but a nice way to start the day is Sacred Master (No7, R1). He came off a short break to finish strongly over 1600m last start and that will have him fighting fit for today's 2100m staying test. He has drawn perfectly to get the run of the race. The value could be Boninsky (No1). Everything went wrong at Te Rapa last start where he lost many lengths out of the barriers and then sat wide throughout before finishing a very creditable fourth. He is dropping back in class for this and Zinjete Moki will take 3kg off his 60kg.
Gasoline (No1, R2) will start a warm favourite here and be difficult to roll, but he won't get it all his own way with impressive barrier trial winner Mongolian Falcon (No4) opposing him. Mongolian Falcon overcame greenness and a difficult passage to win his Avondale barrier trial by a wide margin and has the tactical speed to be a real force today. Gasoline will have learned significantly from his excellent Te Rapa second on debut.
Race 3 is a difficult affair, but one of the class factors in the field is Sound Proposition (No5), having his first race since finishing third in the Derby at the beginning of the year. He is a late developing type and should be a different horse this time around.
Perfect Fit (No10) and Mabeel (No8) are strong chances in an interesting line-up.
If Xtravagant (No1, R4) is even close to the form that saw him run away by nearly nine lengths in the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton last start, he will win today. All reports are that the colt is flying and even with 59.5kg the class factor should click in. Look for a run from The Justice League (No2). He is classy at best and can turn his form around.
Sofia Rosa (No4, R7) will be favourite for the $100,000 Eight Carat Classic and is definitely the filly to beat after winning strongly here last start. But in that race fifth-placed Preetha Varma (No9) might have pushed her close with a better run in the home straight.
Like Sofia Rosa, Preetha Varma will appreciate the step to 1600m and Leith Innes should be able to secure the right run from an inside barrier. Valley Girl (No11) might be better when she gets to the 2000m of the Royal Stakes on January 1, but after her terrific fourth last start from an impossible barrier, she deserves respect here.
Red Striker (No10, R8) was finally fit when she lined up on this track last start and easily got the chocolates. She is best suited with pace on in her races and she will certainly get that today. She has no weight (54.5kg) and a nice barrier, so she will get her chance. Close Up (No4) is underrated, but 59kg and the No12 barrier combine to present him with a difficult task. This is not an easy race and other real prospects are Irish Moon (No2), Caellum (No1), although 60kg and barrier 13 is formidable, and Smashing (No13).
The $200,000 Zabeel Classic, well, what gets the run of the race should win - and that's the way weight-for-age races are meant to be.
Stolen Dance (No10, R9) has an advantage in that she can race equally well anywhere in a field. From the barrier of No8 she will almost certainly go forward and either lead or sit outside the leader. She does both equally as well and as much as this is her toughest career test to date, she will give you a great sight. Last year's winner Soriano (No7) is in the right form to again make an impact and Kawi (No2) will be right in it despite his awkward outside barrier. This will be a great race.
Seventh Up (No11, R10) can finish off his races strongly and is going to fancy stepping from 1200m to 1400m. Party Crasher (No1) is the improver and Diva Achiever (No13) is definitely a progressive sort.