A fascinating scenario is taking shape over the appointment of the All Blacks coach for 2024 and beyond – a traditionally leisurely event under pressure from the quickening pace of world rugby’s coaching roundabout.
Eddie Jones and Wayne Pivac are goners, with Steve Borthwick expected to be named as Jones’replacement in England and Warren Gatland already appointed to the Wales job. That heightens speculation about the future of Scott Robertson – and whether NZ Rugby will take the plunge and appoint him as the next All Blacks coach.
If NZ Rugby are contemplating early selection instead of waiting to see how the World Cup pans out, they are entering uncharted territory. The inference is that NZR are seeking to find a way to wheel Robertson – or maybe someone else – into the top job. But, amidst all the speculation, what’s missing is a clear idea of how this might happen.
Let’s put to one side the possibility NZR will continue with Ian Foster and his coaching team after next year’s World Cup. Conservative decisions and continuing with the incumbent are not exactly unknown when it comes to NZR.
There is a long list of possible candidates: Foster, Robertson, Joe Schmidt, Leon MacDonald, Jamie Joseph (and Tony Brown) and Dave Rennie. Robertson is the front runner and if NZR plump for him – and do so ahead of the World Cup – there seem only to be three options:
Sack Foster now, as England have done with Jones, and pay him out.
Leave Foster in place for the World Cup, as his contract states, but announce Robertson’s succession, to stop him going anywhere else.
Appoint Robertson but make everyone involved sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement to keep everything quiet until after the World Cup.
Option three seems the most unlikely, even though there have been reports NZR were ready to hand the All Blacks over to Robertson at the last review – only to stick to the status quo when Schmidt reportedly said he wouldn’t work with Robertson out of loyalty to Foster. NDAs are one thing; keeping such a move secret is quite another.
Option one is clearly possible; NZR will be aware of the bitter backlash that will flood their way if Robertson ends up coaching elsewhere. Option two is also a possibility, but introduces an approach NZR has never employed before: the dead man walking scenario, where the coach takes a team to the World Cup, knowing his job won’t be there afterwards.
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster and NZ Rugby CEO Mark Robinson at the press conference to announce Foster's retention. Photo / Photosport
There are two schools of thought on this: one, it would be very hard on Foster, a decent man, and deflating for him and his players; two, the contrarian view that it would provide a considerable incentive for coach and players. And what happens if Foster and his team win the World Cup? Okay, the anti-Foster brigade will see that as likely as pigs perching in pohutukawa but there is little doubt the All Blacks, while not yet an obvious World Cup-winning outfit, have improved over the season, admittedly from a low point.
Professional sport being what it is – and the New Zealand psyche being what it is – option two could produce a siege mentality useful in a knockout tournament and double as a gateway to a new era, and maybe even a new way of thinking, for the next World Cup cycle.
There have been reports Robertson causes suspicion in some segments of NZR; that they are nervous about his persona potentially becoming bigger than NZR’s hold on him. One previous theory had it that Foster was told to lift his media performances to help engage fans more – a big deal in the Silver Lake era when millions will be applied to broadening the All Blacks’ global appeal. Since then, the Black Ferns and their attractive authenticity have made the All Blacks look stodgy by comparison; a new coach who breakdances and has a marketable personality may be just the ticket to the future.
We don’t have to worry about Crusaders players who publicly proclaimed for Foster (Sam Whitelock, David Havili and Richie Mo’unga). They would, wouldn’t they, and in any case professional sport has a way of quickly moving past such things for the good of the team.
There’s also the sad fact that importing Schmidt and successful forwards guru Jason Ryan would mean that any improvement in the All Blacks could, not unreasonably, be seen as their achievement, rather than Foster’s.
All those factors seem to point to a time when the Razor of freshness might be drawn across the untidy stubble of the NZR’s recent past – presenting a fresh face to the future. Some gossip has it that NZR might have five bob each way, ditching Foster but installing a coaching team like Joseph and Brown, who may appeal more to the conservatives within.
